For US President Donald Trump, there is no doubt: in the future, the United States will benefit from Venezuelan oil. “We are going to ask our very large oil companies, the largest in the world, to go there, invest billions of dollars and repair the badly damaged oil infrastructure”he said during a press conference on Saturday, January 3, which followed the kidnapping, during the night, of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife by American special forces.
That’s the general plan. On paper, the promise is simple: regime change, massive investments and, at the end of the pipeline, a flood of Venezuelan barrels to fuel the American economy. But this new strategy calls out to experts. Faced with low oil prices and the political instability of the Venezuelan regime, the implementation of presidential wishes seems compromised, as detailed in a Wired article.
“The gap between the Trump administration and the reality of the oil world, as well as the expectations of American companies, is enormous”explains Lorne Stockman, analyst at Oil Change International, a research organization that wants to facilitate the transition to clean energy.
Venezuela has the largest oil reserves in the world (more than 300 billion barrels stored underground, ahead of Saudi Arabia and Iran). But its oil production has fallen drastically since the mid-1990s, after President Hugo Chávez nationalized much of the industry. In 2018, the country only produced 1.3 million barrels per day, compared to more than 3 million at the end of the 1990s. Among the aggravating factors: the sanctions imposed during Trump’s first term, which suffocated the sector.
An infinitely complex market
US President Considers Energy Geopolitics “almost as if the world were a Settlers of Catan game board: you kidnap the president of Venezuela and, de facto, you now control all the oil”illustrates Rory Johnston, Canadian researcher specializing in the sector. A simplistic vision of an infinitely more complex market. This would not be the first time that Trump administration policies aimed at stimulating hydrocarbons have ended up harming the industry. Customs duties, a flagship measure of its commercial strategy, have contributed to the fall in global prices of black gold, with a drop of 20% recorded in 2025, the sharpest since 2020.
“Right now the oil market is somewhat oversuppliedprécise Lorne Stockman. This hurts American businesses. The last thing they want is for huge reserves to suddenly become available.” One question remains: what will happen to these resources buried in Venezuelan soil? In recent months, Washington has increased sanctions and blockade against Caracas, creating a glut of oil stuck inside the country. If these sanctions were lifted, this surplus would enter the world market, probably absorbed by refineries in the Gulf of Mexico: these are specially equipped to process the very heavy and viscous oil from this region.
Uncertain economic opportunities
But drilling more cannot be decreed by presidential press release. Considering Venezuela’s oil capacities, the picture becomes more complicated. With, at the same time, barrel prices almost as low as at the start of the pandemic, large producers are limiting their drilling and choosing their investments cautiously. «We are entering an era where oil demand is slowingsouligne Lorne Stockman. Despite the Trump administration’s intentions, we are in the midst of a transition [vers les énergies renouvelables, ndlr].»
Nothing guarantees a rapid return on investment, or even in the medium term. The country’s black gold reserves require processing to make the oil light and transportable, which incurs additional costs. In addition, the sector’s infrastructure is in an advanced state of disrepair, the result of decades of neglect, corruption and lack of investment. Dramatically scaling up production under these circumstances will take years and cost tens of millions of dollars, experts say.
Some large American companies could still benefit from a change in regime. Chevron, the only company still operating in Venezuela, could accelerate its expansion while oil giants ExxonMobil or ConocoPhillips would be in a position to inject massive capital. For now, the industry remains cautious and observes.
The New York Times reported Saturday that the Trump administration has been considering replacing Nicolás Maduro with Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodríguez for weeks. Also Minister of Oil since 2020, this trained lawyer has distinguished herself by her effective management of the country’s industry. Yet there is no indication that it will be able to transform a political coup into a stable investment environment. The initial plan already seems to be crumbling. Shortly after the kidnapping, the interim president denounced the American incursion, recalling that Nicolás Maduro remained the «sole president» legium of Venezuela.
