By DIDI TANG
WASHINGTON (AP) — The Supreme Court decision striking down President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs has added a new element to already complicated relations between the United States and China, as both countries navigate changing terrain to avoid a full-scale trade war that would disrupt the global economy while still trying to achieve a position of strength in negotiations.
The court ruling would appear to strengthen China’s position, but analysts predict Beijing will be cautious about taking advantage of that advantage, aware that Trump has other ways to impose levies. Both sides also want to maintain a fragile trade truce and stabilize ties ahead of Trump’s trip to Beijing.
“This will give China a morale boost in its negotiations with the Trump team before the summit, but they are prepared for the scenario that nothing actually changes,” said Sun Yun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center, a Washington-based think tank.
Furious at his defeat, Trump initially signaled that he would order a temporary 10% global tariff hours before raising it to 15%, in addition to seeking alternative ways to tax imports. He defended the tariffs by pointing to China, which represents the biggest challenge to US economic, technological and military dominance.
“China had hundreds of billions of dollars in surpluses with the United States. They rebuilt China. They rebuilt the military. We built China’s military by allowing that to happen,” Trump declared on Friday. “I have a great relationship with President Xi, but now he respects our country.”
The White House has confirmed that Trump will travel to China from March 31 to April 2 to meet with President Xi Jinping.
China looks beyond tariffs
Xi is unlikely to firmly “flaunt or soften” the Supreme Court ruling during his meeting with Trump; Instead, he will likely opt to try to strengthen his relationship with the U.S. president, said Ali Wyne, a senior research and advocacy adviser focused on U.S. China policy at the International Crisis Group.
The more he can do so, “the more likely it will be that the fragile US-China trade truce will truly take hold and that Trump will be willing to make security concessions that give China greater freedom of maneuver in Asia,” Wyne said.
Asked about the implications of the ruling, Chinese embassy spokesman Liu Pengyu simply said that tariffs and trade wars do not serve the interests of either country. He urged Beijing and Washington to work together to “provide greater certainty and stability to China-U.S. economic and trade cooperation and the global economy.”
The court decision also creates new uncertainty for other U.S. trading partners, in Asia and elsewhere, particularly those that have reached trade agreements to calm the initial turbulence caused by Trump’s tariffs.
“I would expect most Asian partners to proceed cautiously, with existing agreements largely maintained as both sides consider the implications in the coming weeks,” said Dan Kritenbrink, a partner at The Asia Group and former undersecretary of state for East Asian and Pacific Affairs in Joe Biden’s administration.
He said he will closely monitor the impact on Japan ahead of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s planned visit to Washington next month. Japan, a strong ally of the United States, has seen a deterioration in its relations with Beijing in recent months.
Trump has options
Shortly after his return to the White House early last year, Trump invoked an emergency powers law and imposed 20% tariffs on Chinese goods for what he explained was Beijing’s failure to prevent the flow of precursor chemicals for making fentanyl.
Trump shortly thereafter invoked the same emergency authority to impose broad reciprocal tariffs on many countries, including 34% on China. Beijing responded in kind, with import taxes temporarily soaring into triple digits until both sides backed down.
After several rounds of trade talks and a meeting between Trump and Xi in South Korea last October, the two countries agreed to a one-year truce with a base tariff of 10%. Trump also reduced the tariff related to fentanyl to 10%, while Beijing resumed its cooperation on import restrictions on chemicals that could be used in the manufacture of the opioid.
Wendy Cutler, vice president of the Asia Society Policy Institute, said she suspects the Trump administration could quickly put in place a plan B. The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative maintains an active investigation into China’s compliance with a previous trade deal, and that could be Washington’s backup plan, she said. If China is found not to be meeting its obligations under the deal, a trade law empowers the U.S. government to impose tariffs.
Rep. Ro Khanna, the ranking Democrat on the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party, urged the administration to craft a stronger strategy that “holds China accountable for its unfair trade practices and harnesses the collective power of our allies and partners.”
Gabriel Wildau, managing director specializing in political risk analysis in China for the consulting firm Teneo, noted that Trump has already shown his willingness to use other legal powers to impose tariffs on China, as he did during his first term, and that Beijing probably assumes that the tariffs could be maintained or reinstated “with only moderate difficulty.”
“But Beijing also remains hopeful that it can persuade Trump to reduce this tariff in exchange for purchase guarantees and other concessions,” Wildau concluded.
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This story was translated from English by an AP editor with the help of a generative artificial intelligence tool.
