US President Trump shared the reasons behind the military operation in Venezuela at a press conference. US expert Josef Braml explains the connections in an interview.
Mr. Braml, US President Trump said at a press conference about the military operation in Venezuela that the US would take control of Venezuela. The country will be controlled until there is an orderly transition. What does that mean from your perspective?
Trump literally said he wanted to rule Venezuela. This is notable for two reasons. On the one hand, the critical observer wonders whether America is governed at all, but only marginally. Regarding Venezuela, I ask myself: How does he plan to govern a country where he doesn’t really have a military on the ground? The US military withdrew again after arresting Maduro.
In other words: will there be a power vacuum?
It will probably result in a US-controlled puppet at the top of the state. The US intelligence services will already have one or two candidates in mind. Who exactly that will be is not yet clear. But one thing is certain: He or she will then serve American interests, and these are primarily oil interests. Venezuela is the country with the richest reserves in the world. The new person at the top will certainly allow American bases in the country and thus also push back China’s influence. It’s less about Russia, but more about China. China recently imported a lot of Venezuelan oil via a shadow fleet, thereby ensuring the country’s survival. Those times are now over. Trump has made it clear who, in his view, is the master of the house.
Trump specifically mentioned the Monroe Doctrine. This has been forgotten in recent years and is no longer the case under him. Can you explain that? What impact does this have on US foreign policy?
He also mentioned this doctrine in his security strategy published a few weeks ago. The Monroe Doctrine, which was formulated in the 19th century to keep European colonial powers out, now essentially means that the USA claims control over the so-called Western Hemisphere. Actually, this was mainly meant with reference to South America. But Trump has updated and adapted the doctrine. And I’m not sure if he really only means South America. So: If you live in Canada or Greenland, you should think about one or two things by this day at the latest.
US expert Braml: “It’s no longer about law and order”
Trump also sent a clear warning to other states and their leaders that the same thing could happen to them if they threatened the security of the USA. Is this just grandiose fanfare from Trump, or should this be taken seriously? What direction is he thinking?
It is to be taken seriously. This is the new security strategy of the USA. It’s no longer about law and order, about international law, but about spheres of influence. The most important sphere of influence for the United States is now the Western Hemisphere. And in Europe, America and Russia are coming to an agreement about their zones of influence, as we have seen in recent months. During the so-called peace negotiations on Ukraine it was clear that both Putin and Trump wanted to divide business interests over the heads of the Ukrainians and the Europeans. And China is also granted a sphere of influence in Asia by the USA as long as Beijing does not affect the vital interests of the USA and endanger regional stability.
What does this mean for the world?
In this concept of spheres of influence, it is clear that powerful states dominate and undermine the small ones. And if a small state like Venezuela doesn’t understand this, then geoeconomic coercive measures are implemented, tariffs or much more. And if that doesn’t achieve the goal, then you just resort to a military strike to change the regime. So it’s not just Putin who is breaking international law in his neighborhood, the United States of America is also no longer adhering to law and order, but is instead claiming the rule of the strongest. And many people, especially many transatlantic people, now have to rethink things. America has become a threat to world peace, and also to Europe, if you think of Greenland.
In his press conference, Trump named many reasons that bothered him about Maduro or that were the reason for his operational order: He mentioned drugs, Maduro had ruined the oil industry, he had stolen US property, and in general the country was a catastrophe under him. What was really the reason?
The domestic political pretext that Trump is using is combating drugs. This is a huge topic in the USA. And with this foil he covers a lot of what he does out of geopolitical motivation. And as I said, it’s about making it clear to Russia and especially China: This is our backyard, get out of here! He will now push Chinese business interests out of South America and push even more American interests in. Just like he is doing in Ukraine and pushing the Europeans out.
