Par Giuseppe Gagliano, President of the Centro Studi Strategici Carlo De Cristoforis (Côme, Italy)
The summit hosted by Donald Trump at the White House with the leaders of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan marks a turning point in American foreign policy. For Washington, critical minerals have become the new oil — the strategic resources that will determine the industrial might, technological sovereignty and military capacity of nations in the 21st century.
On November 6, 2025, as part of the C5+1 platform, Trump affirmed that his administration places supply chain security at the heart of its economic policy. The objective: secure American access to uranium, copper, rare earths and tungsten, essential elements for the energy transition, electric vehicles and new generation defense technologies.
A region at the heart of a new geopolitical chessboard
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Since the fall of the Soviet Union, Central Asia remains a strategic crossroads disputed between Moscow and Beijing. Russia retains deep political, military and cultural ties there, while China has invested heavily in infrastructure and mining through its New Silk Roads initiative. The entry of Washington on the scene upsets this fragile balance.
Trump presented Central Asia as “an extremely rich region,” emphasizing that his administration wanted to establish lasting cooperation with the five states to “ensure common prosperity based on energy and mineral security.” This message is part of the American decoupling strategy vis-à-vis China: reducing dependence on rare metals controlled by Beijing, which dominates more than 80% of the global processing of rare earths, while limiting Russian influence on the uranium market.
Also read: ANALYSIS – The Great Green Game: Need rages and necessity rules – PART 3
The challenge of critical resources
The figures speak for themselves: Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan together produce more than half of the world’s uranium. In 2024, Kazakhstan alone will provide nearly 40% of global production, while Russia remains the second supplier to the United States with around 20% of imports. This dependence worries Washington, especially as the energy transition – nuclear energy, batteries, wind turbines – requires increasing volumes of critical minerals.
Faced with this emergency, the White House is increasing bilateral agreements. During the summit, Boeing secured the sale of 37 civil aircraft to the airlines of Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. At the same time, the American company Cove Capital announced a partnership for the extraction of tungsten in Kazakhstan, financed by guarantees from the American government. Trump also revealed that Uzbekistan would invest more than $100 billion in the United States over the next decade in key sectors such as strategic minerals, aerospace and the automobile industry.
These initiatives demonstrate an offensive economic diplomacy where industrial contracts become instruments of power. As Gracelin Baskaran, director of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, observed, “as China and Russia consolidate their hold on the region’s mining and logistics systems, Washington is seeking to establish tangible footholds through targeted projects of high strategic value.”
Also read: DECRYPTION – China is tightening its grip on rare earths: An economic offensive with global implications
Kazakhstan, pivot of the new regional order
The most significant symbolic gesture came from Astana: Kazakhstan joined the Abraham Accords, normalizing its relations with Israel. This choice, made on the same day as the meeting in Washington, illustrates the weaving of a diplomatic network linking energy security, technological cooperation and the recomposition of the Middle East under American leadership.
For Kassym-Jomart Tokaïev, President of Kazakhstan, this is “the opening of a new era of partnership with the United States”. His country, endowed with vast reserves of uranium, copper and rare earths, is becoming a key player in the Western diversification strategy. At the same time, Astana seeks to balance its relations between Washington, Moscow and Beijing — a delicate balancing act, but essential to preserve its autonomy.
An economic diplomacy with a Cold War feel
Washington’s mineral offensive takes place in a context of systemic rivalry with China and Russia. Beijing controls the global processing of rare earths and has a considerable technological lead in the production of magnets, electronic equipment and guided missiles. Moscow, for its part, remains a major energy supplier and a key player in civil nuclear power. By seeking to anchor Central Asia in his orbit, Trump therefore aims to reshape the economic balance of Eurasia and deprive his adversaries of an essential strategic lever.
But this strategy is based on a contradiction: to assert itself in the region, the United States will have to invest massively in infrastructure, railways and industrial installations that China has already been financing for a decade. Washington is banking on the strength of the dollar, the power of the American market and the promise of political cooperation without direct supervision – an approach attractive on paper, but difficult to realize given the geography and historical dependencies of these countries.
Also read: DECRYPTION – The dragon locks its treasures: Beijing confiscates the passports of rare earth experts to preserve its technological supremacy
Central Asia, laboratory of the multipolar world
With its 84 million inhabitants and its immense mineral reserves, Central Asia is becoming the laboratory of a multipolar order where alliances are being redefined around resources. The United States is seeking to introduce a “hybrid” model of influence: commercial diplomacy coupled with a strategic presence. American bases in Central Asia have disappeared since Afghanistan, but the economy and technology are now taking over from military force.
Trump, by focusing on “resource diplomacy”, is trying to reinvent American influence in a world where war is waged through contracts, standards and investments. This vision breaks with the interventionist logic of the past: it is no longer a question of controlling territories, but of securing value chains.
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A risky but structuring bet
The success of this strategy will depend on American consistency, often undermined by changes in administration. For this “mineral doctrine” to survive, American companies will need to remain committed in the long term, Congress will support funding, and Washington will finally understand that geoeconomic competition is won over time.
Trump hopes to transform Central Asia into a Western economic bastion in the heart of Eurasia, breaking the Russian-Chinese duopoly. But the region, accustomed to playing on several tables, will not accept a new hegemon. It will undoubtedly prefer to monetize its neutrality against investments from all sides.
In this “great game” of the 21st century, mines replace oil wells, supply chains take the place of pipelines, and power is no longer measured in military bases, but in industrial contracts.
The war for critical minerals is not just economic — it is the backbone of the new world order.
And as always, those who possess the raw material are not necessarily those who hold the power: you still need to know how to transform it into influence.
Also read: ANALYSIS – Rare earths: China locks down, Trump retaliates, Europe pays
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