Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 6, 2025
Angelica Evans, Davit Gasparyan, Olivia Gibson, Grace Mappes, and George Barros
February 6, 2025, 6:30 pm ET
Explore ISW’s interactive maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine here.
See ISW’s interactive map of Ukraine’s offensive in Kursk Oblast here.
Use ISW’s 3D control of terrain topographic map of Ukraine here. (Best viewed on a computer).
Access ISW’s time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine here. Updated monthly.
Note: Data cut-off was 12:15pm ET on February 6. Reports on February 7 will follow.
Ukrainian Advances in Kursk Oblast
Ukrainian forces launched new mechanized assaults in Kursk Oblast, penetrating up to five kilometers behind Russian lines southeast of Sudzha. Recent footage shows Ukrainian gains near villages like Kolmakov and Fanaseyevka. Russian sources provide differing accounts of the situation, with some Russian milbloggers claiming successful repulsion of Ukrainian attacks but others admitting some breakthroughs. The Ukrainian General Staff maps show minor Russian advancements elsewhere.
Russian President Praises Kursk Defenders
Russian President Vladimir Putin acknowledged the service of elite Russian troops defending the Kursk Oblast region since August 2024. Putin’s statement highlights the prolonged commitment of these forces, which includes elements from the 155th, 810th, and other elite brigades. Despite these efforts, Putin continues to focus more on advances in Donetsk Oblast rather than expelling Ukrainian forces from Kursk.
Public Support for Russian War Effort
A recent state-run poll by the Russian Public Opinion Research Center indicated that 67% of respondents still support Russia’s war effort, and 65% believe the war is progressing well. These numbers likely reflect Kremlin narratives and might be inflated given the ongoing challenges, including increased Ukrainian counterattacks and economic difficulties. Rising casualties and command controversies also factor into the Russian public’s war perception.
Ukrainian Drone Strikes on Russian Infrastructure
Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike against an air base in Krasnodar Krai, causing an explosion and fire. The strike targeted the Primorsko-Akhtarsk Air Base, used for Shahed drone storage and aircraft maintenance. This attack signals Ukraine’s continued efforts to disrupt Russian defense capabilities.
Continued Military Support from Western Allies
France began transferring Mirage 2000-5 fighter jets to Ukraine, following a commitment made in June 2024. Meanwhile, the Netherlands delivered F-16 fighter jets to bolster Ukraine’s air defenses. These weapons systems are critical in supporting Ukraine’s offensive capabilities and countering Russian air threats.
Summary Key Points
- Ukrainian forces launched new assaults in Kursk Oblast.
- Russian President Vladimir Putin praised elite forces defending Kursk Oblast.
- The Russian public maintains high support for the war, despite challenges.
- Ukrainian forces struck a Russian air base in Krasnodar Krai.
- Western allies continue providing military assistance to Ukraine.
- Russian President Putin appointed a new head to the Russian space agency.
- Ukrainian forces recently recaptured positions near Kurakhove.
- Russian forces have advanced in areas like Kupyansk, Chasiv Yar, and Kurakhove.
- Russian authorities aim to boost benefits for military personnel.
Where to Find More Information
For more detailed maps and analyses, explore:
- ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine
- ISW’s interactive map of Ukraine’s offensive in Kursk Oblast
- ISW’s 3D control of terrain topographic map of Ukraine
- ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine
Continued Conflict Dynamics
While Russian forces maintain their main efforts in eastern and southern Ukraine, Ukrainian operations highlight a shift towards more localized but impactful counterattacks. The situation in Kursk Oblast remains critical, with potential implications for broader strategic objectives.
Ukrainian and Russian Operations: A Closer Look
In Kursk Oblast, several villages continue to see intense fighting, with Ukrainian forces making advances and launching strategic assaults. Meanwhile, in eastern Ukraine, Russian forces push towards Kharkiv and in Luhansk Oblast, seek to encircle northern Donetsk Oblast. The clash of forces in Chasiv Yar and Toretsk remains significant, with both sides experiencing sporadic advances and counterattacks.
Drone Strikes and Missile Campaigns
The air and missile campaign remains a critical aspect of the conflict, with regular drone strikes from both sides. Russian forces launched multiple Shahed drones and Iskander-M ballistic missiles, causing damage in various Ukrainian cities. Ukrainian forces have also conducted numerous precision strikes against Russian military and industrial targets, highlighting the asymmetric nature of modern warfare.
National Dynamics and Recruitment Efforts
The Russian government continues efforts to improve social benefits for military personnel and mobilized forces, aiming to bolster morale and recruitment. Efforts include simplifying the process for relatives of Rosgvardia personnel to obtain service certificates and improving veteran benefits. However, Russian milbloggers express concerns over the morale and effectiveness of mobilized forces, suggesting ongoing challenges in sustainment.
As the conflict enters new phases, both Ukraine and Russia adapt their strategies, focusing on localized operations, enhanced technological capabilities, and strategic alliances. The ongoing war underscores the complex dynamics of modern warfare, where every strategic move has far-reaching consequences.
Stay Informed
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