Rupiah to USD Exchange Rate Today – November 8, 2025

Bisnis.comJAKARTA – The rupiah exchange rate next week, Monday, November 10 2025, is expected to fluctuate but has the potential to close lower.

“For trading next Monday (10/11), the rupiah currency fluctuated but closed lower in the range of Rp. 16,690-Rp. 16,740,” said PT Traze Andalan Futures Currency and Commodity observer Ibrahim Assuaibi, in a written statement quoted on Saturday, (8/11/2025)

As a comparison, the rupiah closed trading at the end of last week (7/11/2025) up 11 points at IDR 16,690.

Ibrahim Assuaibi said the strengthening of the US dollar index at the weekend was triggered by a combination of external and internal factors. He explained that the United States government shutdown, which has entered its second month, has delayed the release of a number of key economic data, including employment and inflation. This uncertainty makes market players rely on private sector surveys as a guide.

Last Thursday’s private jobs report showed signs of weakness in the labor market, increasing expectations of the Fed easing monetary policy sooner than expected. “Based on surveys, the chance of an interest rate cut is around 70% in December, up from around 60% the day before,” he said.

From China, exports in October fell unexpectedly after a surge in the previous month and missed projections for a modest increase. Imports also weakened, causing a contraction in the trade balance and indicating ongoing pressure on domestic demand.

Tensions between America and China also worsened sentiment, after reports that the US planned to limit Nvidia’s sales of small-scale AI chips to China and in response the Bamboo Curtain country intended to ban the use of foreign-made AI chips in the country’s data centers.

Domestically, the slowdown in economic growth in the third quarter of 2025, which only reached 5.04%, added to market pressure. To meet the annual growth target of 5.2%, the government needs to encourage the economy to grow 5.77%–5.8% in the fourth quarter of 2025. However, official projections show growth in the fourth quarter of only 5.5%, so the average economic growth in 2025 is estimated to be around 5.13%.

Historically, this target has been difficult to achieve. In the last 10 years, fourth quarter growth has never exceeded 5.5%. Average growth in the fourth quarter for the 2015–2024 period was recorded at around 4.3%, including a contraction of 2.19% in the fourth quarter of 2020 due to the Covid-19 pandemic. With the lack of large-scale economic and political momentum in 2025, space for accelerated growth is considered limited.

With this combination of external and domestic pressure, Ibrahim assesses that the potential for the rupiah to weaken on Monday remains open. “The US dollar index strengthened at the end of last week due to internal and external factors,” he said.