Polymarket, the largest financial market for online predictions, banned in many countries, announced on Tuesday a partnership with the American Palantir to monitor these transactions, at a time when accusations of insider trading carried out using the platform are increasing.
This partnership will use Vergence AI, a joint venture launched in 2025 by Palantir Technologies, an American data analysis giant known for its links with intelligence agencies, and TWG AI, a company specializing in artificial intelligence applied to sports.
Vergence AI’s mission will be to monitor sports prediction transactions in near real-time, filter unauthorized participants and generate compliance reports.
This announcement is part of Polymarket’s efforts to be recognized as a legal marketplace platform, while the site is blocked or banned in a number of European countries and several Asian nations.
Like other “prediction markets”, Polymarket allows its users to buy and sell financial products linked to the probability of occurrence of events, from electoral results to military strikes.
Long confined to a niche of cryptocurrency enthusiasts, these platforms have made a breakthrough into the general public. They are positioning themselves as an alternative to traditional polls and sports betting, now establishing partnerships with major American media (CNN, CNBC, Wall Street Journal).
But this visibility was accompanied by increasing pressure on Polymarket and its main competitor Kalshi, suspected of allowing the lucrative exploitation of inside information.
Several accounts reportedly made around $1.2 million in profits on Polymarket by betting on the date of the start of US military operations against Iran just hours before the first strikes.
Behind these bets, the crypto analysis company Bubblemaps identified “six suspects of insider trading”.
In January, another user allegedly pocketed more than $400,000 in profit by betting around $33,000 on the ouster of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, a few hours before the first information leaked.
In the process, American senators Jeff Merkley and Amy Klobuchar introduced a bill to prohibit the president, the vice-president and national elected officials from exchanging on these platforms.
Prediction markets are under the control of the CFTC, the regulator of financial derivative products in the United States, unlike sports betting groups, which are subject to state legislation on gambling.
Polymarket, which has operated from the United States since its creation in 2020, was prohibited for use by American residents until this restriction was lifted at the end of 2025 following decisions by the Trump administration.
Donald Trump Jr., the president’s son, invested in the New York company last year and joined its advisory board. The co-founder of Palantir, Peter Thiel, a figure close to Donald Trump, also invested in Polymarket.
