OPEC+ Oil Production Increase: Economic Impact

The OPEC Plus alliance decided today, Sunday, to increase oil production by 137,000 barrels per day, starting next December, while freezing production increases in the first three months of 2026.

According to a statement by the coalition, in light of the stable global economic outlook and currently sound market fundamentals, as shown by the decline in oil inventories, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and the Sultanate of Oman decided to increase production from the additional voluntary reduction of 1.65 million barrels per day, which was approved in April 2023.

Details of increased production

The alliance will continue to closely monitor and evaluate market conditions, and has indicated caution while maintaining flexibility in production policies.

These are the most notable production increases:

• Iraq’s production will increase by 18 thousand barrels to 4.27 million barrels.
• Kuwait’s production will increase by 10,000 barrels to 2.85 million barrels per day.
• Saudi Arabia’s production will increase by 41 thousand barrels per day to 10.1 million barrels per day.
• UAE production will increase by 12 thousand barrels per day to 3.41 million barrels.
• Russia’s production will increase by 41 thousand barrels per day to 9.57 million barrels.

The OPEC+ alliance has increased production targets by more than 2.7 million barrels per day, equivalent to 2.5% of global supplies, since last April, but slowed the pace in October and November to 137 thousand barrels per day, down from larger increases amid expectations of an imminent surplus in supply.

New Western sanctions imposed on Russia, a member of the OPEC+ alliance, add to the challenges. Moscow will likely face difficulty in increasing its production further after the United States and Britain imposed new measures on the Russian companies Rosneft and Lukoil.

Oil prices fell to the lowest level in five months at approximately $60 per barrel on October 20 amid fears of supply accumulation, but they have since recovered to about $65 due to the imposition of sanctions on Russia and optimism about trade talks between the United States and its partners.

The OPEC Plus alliance, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia, reduced production for several years until last April.

The cuts reached their peak last March, reaching 5.85 million barrels per day in total.

The production reduction consisted of three tranches, namely voluntary cuts amounting to 2.2 million barrels per day, 1.65 million barrels per day from eight members of OPEC Plus, and an additional two million barrels per day from the entire group.

The coalition has begun to reduce the voluntary cuts, and the segment of cuts from the entire group is scheduled to remain in effect until the end of 2026.