Rep. Mikie Sherrill is considered the favorite heading into TuesdayS primary for the Democratic nomination for governor of new Jersey.She has run television ads in the New York and Philadelphia media markets, has the support of much of the party establishment, and held double-digit leads in two polls released several weeks ago.

However, there is some uncertainty. There has been limited public polling. And court-ordered changes to the primary ballot could substantially weaken the endorsements Sherrill received from key county Democratic organizations.

Sherrill’s opponents have each gained ground. but that seems to have kept them from becoming a clear alternative to Sherrill. Consider New Jersey’s political geography.

A line south of Mercer and Monmouth counties separates South Jersey. Democratic politics there are dominated by a political machine backing former state Sen. Steve Sweeney, the only South Jersey candidate.

Sweeney’s problem is that only about 30% of primary votes will come from that region. And because South Jersey is part of the Philadelphia media market, he is not well-known in the rest of the state, which is served by the New York market.

To the extent he is known, Sweeney’s connection to the South Jersey machine is a liability. According to a May Insider NJ poll conducted by StimSight Research, more Democratic voters said the term “typical machine politician” applies to him than any other candidate. He has lagged in polling.

Then there is vote-rich North Jersey, where the other candidates can claim some advantage. Newark Mayor Ras Baraka is likely to win his city, the state’s largest, overwhelmingly. Newark is in Essex County, which has more registered Democrats than any other county. More than 40% of Essex’s population is Black, which should further boost Baraka, the only Black candidate. Nearby Union County, which has the second-highest share of Black residents, could offer another trove of votes.

Baraka has also appealed to the party’s progressive base. He has run to the left, and he burnished his anti-Trump credentials when he was arrested at an immigration and Customs Enforcement facility last month. Coupled with deep Black support, that could be the makings of a potent coalition.

But Baraka has competition in the progressive lane from Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop, who is also embracing left-wing themes and has framed his candidacy as a war on the Democratic establishment.Insider NJ’s poll asked Democrats whether any of the candidates stood out to them as being “a true progressive.” Baraka and Fulop were cited more than anyone else.

Another candidate, Rep. Josh Gottheimer, has focused on tax cuts and cost-of-living issues. Gottheimer won his House seat by flipping a Republican district and has amassed a large campaign bankroll. He is expected to perform strongly in Bergen County, his political base, and has been endorsed by Bergen’s Democratic organization.

When he entered the race, Gottheimer hoped his perceived electability would gain the support of multiple major county organizations in North Jersey. Last year, leaders from Hudson County (which includes Fulop’s Jersey City) initially supported him. But that deal fell apart, and the Hudson organization rather endorsed sherrill.