Lecturer and analyst of international relations, Meïr Masri draws up this Wednesday evening in “La Grande Edition” an unambiguous observation on the current tensions between Israel and Turkey: behind the virulence of Ankara’s declarations, the risk of open war remains highly improbable.
According to him, Turkey does not really perceive the alliance between Israel, Greece and Cyprus as a credible strategic threat. This hostility is more in line with a political and ideological register, which has become a marker of Turkish discourse since the AKP came to power in the early 2000s. For the Ankara regime, this regional axis is presented as an “axis of evil”, combining two historical antagonisms: the rivalry with Greece and the Cypriot dispute, part of whose territory has remained occupied by Turkey for more than sixty years.
Meïr Masri emphasizes, however, that this rhetoric, as aggressive as it is, cannot be accepted by Israel, which reacted firmly. However, Ankara “likes to test the limits, not explode them”. A direct confrontation with Israel would isolate Turkey militarily and diplomatically, particularly within NATO. By provoking a conflict, Ankara would expose itself to severe American sanctions, with Washington remaining both the pillar of the Atlantic Alliance and a key ally of Israel.
The scenario considered the most credible remains that of an indirect and low-intensity confrontation, by proxy, on Syrian soil. In the event of a weakening of the Syrian regime, Turkey could activate the militias it supports, particularly in the south of the country, creating a lasting area of friction but without direct confrontation.
Finally, despite Turkish rhetoric described as violent and belligerent, Meïr Masri believes that diplomatic space remains. Israel and Turkey share common allies, first and foremost the United States, as well as converging strategic interests, in particular to prevent a return of Iran and Hezbollah to Syria. So many factors that keep the conflict in the register of words rather than weapons.
