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It may seem tedious to answer the question of how the current Israeli-Iran conflict will affect the global balance of power. The photo shows a satellite image of the Fordou enrichment facility in central Iran. Photo taken on June 20th. Photo courtesy of Maxar Technologies (Reuters,2025)

LONDON – It may seem tedious to answer the question of how the current Israeli-Iran conflict will affect the global balance of power. Now that the United States has joined the war on Israeli side, the situation is moving extremely rapidly, and whether Iran will take retaliation or oriented towards peace will greatly affect the future trends.

However, there are several factors that determine whether the US, China, Russia and Europe will increase or lose power due to this conflict. They include whether Iran’s nuclear development plan will be over, whether the regime will overthrow, whether the next administration will no longer be as opposed to the United States as it is in the current administration, and whether the state will fall into anarchy or not.

The key issues include whether the United States will end its involvement in Iran through a short, limited attack, or whether it will become involved in a long-term conflict, and whether the world will consider the United states a “rogue state.” If Israel takes more lives for Gaza while global interest is on Iran, it could also be accused of offering “hiding” the United States of America.

Crude oil prices are also an extremely vital factor. North Sea Brent rose by about 11% between the 13th and 20th when israel began airstrikes in Iran. If the ship’s navigation and pipeline operation is hindered, the price could rise even further.

It is also worth noting whether external forces will be involved in solving the current crisis and whether they will expand their influence in the process.

Trump’s Tightrope diplomacy

The US could and could lose much in this conflict. If Iran’s nuclear development program can be completed, it will be a major victory for the United States and will strengthen its position as a “global superpower.” But despite Trump claiming that he “completely destroyed iran’s nuclear enrichment facility,” some experts say that Iran’s nuclear threat is far from over.

Some of Trump’s powerful Republicans, Middle East Gulf allies, and some European leaders, were also worried that the US would be involved in the war would cause confusion. But those concerns will be dispelled if Trump can contain Iran’s nuclear threat and avoid a long-term war.

In that case, the US might potentially be able to switch its focus from the Middle East to China. China is the only country that truly threatens the US superpower status. Richard Fontaine of the New American security Center (CNAS) believes the US can reposition Strike Group (the US Navy task force wiht aircraft carriers at its core) into the Indo-Pacific region.

The impact of this conflict will collapse in Iran’s system led by supreme Leader Khamenei. It is not clear whether the new administration will no longer be as hostile to the US government as the current administration. If Iran becomes a dysfunctional “failing nation”,the region will become even more destabilized and the US will be held accountable.

Meanwhile, if the United States gets caught up in a new “endless war,” it will suffer even more damage. “The United States has used force in Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq, but both have weakened rather than strengthened,” says robin niblett of the Royal Institute of International Studies (Chatham House).

Moreover, if Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz and stops crude oil transport, Trump will also suffer a blow. This is because US oil companies can benefit from rising prices, but voters really dislike gasoline prices.

Axis of Confusion

Iran is part of what Richard Fontaine calls the “Axis of Upheaval.” Other constituent countries are Russia, China and North Korea. Even though this is not an official alliance, Iran, China and North Korea have provided considerable support to the Russian side in Russia’s fight against Ukraine.

Russia and China would be happy if Iran halted its nuclear development. The two countries have signed an Iran nuclear agreement in 2015. However, if the next Iranian regime distances itself from this slow cooperative relationship, Russia and China will not be happy.

This scenario is especially painful for Russia. In January this year, Russia agreed to a 20-year strategic partnership with Iran. If Russia is unable to fully support Iran’s Khamenei regime following the failure to protect its Syrian ally last year, Russia’s prestige will decline even further.

The most critically important thing for Russian President Putin is how the situation in Iran will affect Russia’s war against ukraine. Russia is likely to lose an important source of drones (drones). However, if crude oil prices remain high, we can secure the funds needed for the war. If the US gets caught up in a long battle in Iran,the US could become increasingly reluctant to support Ukraine.

One uncertainty is whether Russia can even mediate an agreement between the US and Iran even now. Trump himself suggested that this may have happened before approving the Iranian airstrike. Russia may be able to force Trump to further reduce its support from Ukraine in return, pointing out Michel Ducro of the Montaigne Institute.

High oil prices are a bad factor for China, which imports fossil fuels.Furthermore, if Iranian regimes were to be replaced, it could perhaps lose important allies in the Middle East gulf region.

Though, if the United States is dragged into a new Middle East war, it would be a major tailwind for China. China has expanded its economic and political influence after the US invasion of Iraq. China could send a message that “we are a responsible nation and the United States is an offensive hegemonic nation.”

Weaknesses in Europe

If the Iranian conflict escalates further, Europe will lose a lot. Europe imports a large amount of crude oil, and the shock caused by the rising prices of crude oil is huge.

If Iran falls into chaos, it could lead to a new influx of refugees and further fuel far-right nationalism in Europe. Iran’s population is 92 million,four times that of Syria,the epicenter of the refugee crisis that shattered European politics in 2015.

The biggest risk for Europe is that the Iranian crisis will be in its favor for Russia and will encourage the execution of the Ukrainian war. Conversely,it would benefit if Europe could mediate a diplomatic agreement between the US and Iran. However,Trump had expressed the view that this could have happened just before the attack on Iran began.

Up until this point, it is a “known unknown.” However, there are also “unknown unknowns” that no one can predict.

Depending on how the “known” and “unknown” factors unfold, it will determine whether the Iranian crisis will serve as a turning point to bring the global balance of power back to the US, or whether it will further lean in China’s favor.

(The author is a columnist for “Reuters Breakingviews.” This column is based on the author’s personal opinion.)

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The author is a columnist for “Reuters Breakingviews.” This column is based on the author’s personal opinion.

Hugo Dixon is Commentator-at-Large for Reuters.He was the founding chair and editor-in-chief of Breakingviews. Before he set up Breakingviews, he was editor of the Financial Times’ Lex Column. After Thomson Reuters acquired Breakingviews, Hugo founded InFacts, a journalistic enterprise making the fact-based case against Brexit. He then helped persuade the G7 to adopt a plan to help the Global South accelerate its transition to net zero. He is an avid philosopher.