– Here Trump has crossed a new limit – E24

The United States really comes out “particularly good” by the trade with Brazil, according to the economist. Still, Trump threatens 50 percent tariffs.

“This is used as a press agent to bring the trial against Jair Bolsonaro,” UiO professor Benedicte Bull, who researches Latin America, told E24.

The letter US President Donald Trump sent to Brazil on Thursday, had a far less formal and polite tone than several of the other customs letters he has sent lately.

Trump not only wrote that Brazil is going to get a sky -high tariff of 50 percent. He also took the opportunity to attack Brazil’s treatment of former president Jair Bolsonaro.

The former president is charged in the country’s Supreme Court for planning a bargain to retain power, despite the defeat against the election defeat against the incumbent President Lula da Silva in 2022.

Brazil’s tariff rate is also partly introduced because of Brazil’s “insidious attacks on free choices and the American basic freedom of speech”.

– Economically, this is quite incomprehensible. Brazil does not have trade surpluses with the United States, says Bull.

Will respond

Finally, Trump also announced in the letter that he immediately initiate “a survey of Brazil after section 301”.

It is an American trade tool used to protect US interests from foreign trade practice. The survey can lead to financial sanctions, such as customs or other barriers to trade.

Brazil’s president has already responded to X that they are ready to respond. Brazil can strike back the United States by suspending US patents on drugs and agricultural seeds, reports CNN Brazil.

Benedict Bull

Bolsonaro risks 40 years in prison for the coup attempt, which according to the prosecuting authority was unsuccessful because they lacked the necessary support in the military.

-There is close contact between Eduardo Bolsonaro in particular, ie the son of former President, Bolsonaro and the Trump camp in the United States. Here, Trump has crossed a new border by using customs as a press agent against another country’s independent legal system, says Bull.

– What has Trump to win by Bolsonaro being acquitted?

– Everything Trump does, I think, is about a demonstration of power. This will strengthen Trump’s position as head of an international, extreme right -wing movement. And then he shows that he can get through his will and directly influence elections. If Bolsonaro can stand, it will have plenty to say for the upcoming election, she says.

There are elections in Brazil next year.

Dissatisfied with alliance

Trump is very dissatisfied with the alliance BRICS, which in the 2000s consisted of Brazil, Russia, India and China.

In 2010, South Africa also joined the alliance, before Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran and the Emirates have recently also joined.

The president has warned the BRICS countries, which have openly challenged the US-led economic system-among other things by launching their own alternatives to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank.

– The United States becomes a less important part of world trade, and other countries will find other ways to cooperate in between. This is a “call to action” among those who want an alternative economic system, and there Brazil has been a bit in the front, partly because they want a BRICS currency, says economist Svein Harald Øygard.

He has previously led McKinsey’s work on energy in South America from just Brazil.

Small effect

– The United States exports more to Brazil than Brazil exports to the United States. It is one of the few countries where the United States has a trade surplus, says Øygard.

In the first round of tariff rates in April, Brazil received only 10 percent duties from the United States.

– Brazil a large country with really large import and export restrictions. As a proportion of GDP, exports and imports are very low, around 12 per cent, says Øygard.

– Around 1-2 percent of GDP is export to the United States. It is a very low proportion. Paradoxically, the largest export products are crude oil, and the second largest is semi -processed iron products and then there are some agricultural products, he says.

Brazilians are not sure “pills on the nose”, he says.

– What makes it important is that it sets Trump and his politicizing trade agenda against the ultimate superpower in the “global south” – and the most legitimate.

Can strike back

Researcher Benedicte Bull adds that Brazil is a very polarized country. The current president is leading a center-left coalition, while the opponent Bolsonaro is far on the other side.

-Someone in the Bolsonaro camp will probably think: “Finally, some people take hold”. The Latin Americans have a certain tendency to look for a strong man who only cuts through with his will.

Still, she thinks it’s going to hit the Brazilians who have gone out and paid tribute to Trump to support Bolsonaro.

– You have seen elsewhere when opposition goes out and asks other countries for financial penalties, so it will ultimately go beyond those who have asked for it. It has consequences for the economy, and even if you talk about exports to the United States, which is relatively small, it will go beyond individual sectors, she says.

– a trade Brazil and the United States earn on

Oil is the most important product the United States and Brazil trade with each other. Svein Harald Øygard says the United States is particularly well out of this trade.

– 10-15 years ago, the United States was a net importer of oil. They imported oil and from Venezuela and Mexico. It was heavy oil and you had to have super -advanced refineries to process. It was invested massively in US refineries to extract full value. Now imports from Venezuela and Mexico are down. Then there is too little refinery capacity in Brazil, so crude oil goes to the United States, and then gasoline is sent back to Brazil. This is a trade Brazil and the United States earns, he says.

He adds that the United States becomes a less important part of world trade, and other countries will find other ways to cooperate between themselves. China and Brazil already trade a lot with each other, Bull points out.

“They sell soy, beef, oil and minerals to China, and China has increased its imports tremendously from Latin America, so it will not be a problem for them to sell their products elsewhere,” she says.

Coffee and orange juice are among the products the Americans buy from Brazil, she explains.