Economist Prof. Dr. Sefer Şener made important evaluations in the TGRT News live broadcast, from crypto assets to gold prices, from Fed decisions to inflation expectations.
WHAT IS THE LATEST SITUATION IN CRYPTO?
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Şener said that crypto assets move with different dynamics, independent of interest rates and gold prices in the USA. Stating that a critical regulation regarding crypto assets has been implemented in the USA, Şener stated that new versions, especially called stable coins and linked to the dollar, were passed by the Senate. He emphasized that stable coins indexed to both the dollar and gold will now be seen more frequently. He said that the introduction of these new regulations has led to the loss of value of existing crypto assets as we know them.
WHY IS GOLD RISING?
Stating that the rise in gold is not due to a single reason, Şener said that geopolitical risks and the decisions to be taken by the US Federal Reserve are decisive. Stating that the economic steps of the US government also support gold, Şener stated that investors sometimes turn to gold and sometimes to the dollar in their search for direction in the market. He said that movements in crypto assets are also reflected in gold prices because investors can move from crypto to gold.
He also stated that in the scenario where this process continues and the Fed cuts interest rates in December, gold will become even stronger if the 2.5 percent target is approached. Şener added that the interest rate, which is currently 3.75, approaching the target will support gold prices.
OUNCE OF GOLD COULD NOT EXCEED THIS FIGURE
Stating that the ounce of gold did not fall below 4,000 dollars in the last two months and is at the level of 4,160 dollars as of today, Şener stated that he expects it to exceed the 4,500-5,000 dollar range next year. He stated that the direction is upward under the current conditions and the upward trend of gold prices will continue.
INFLATION FORECAST
Şener reminded that inflation is expected to be low in November and December. In November last year, inflation was 2.24 percent; He said that this year, based on the available data, an expectation of around 1.20 percent was formed. He stated that if inflation falls below 1 percent in December, the 32 percent band predicted for the end of the year will be realized.
Şener predicted that there was a total inflation expectation of 2.5 points for both November and December, approximately 1.20 points for November and 1 point for December, and predicted that the year would end with an inflation rate of 31-32 percent with these figures. He reminded that this will have a direct impact on policy interest, minimum wage and civil servant pensions.
HOW MUCH WILL THE INTEREST REDUCTION BE?
Şener pointed out that when the current 39.5 percent policy rate is compared with the expected year-end inflation, a real interest rate of 7.5 points is formed. For this reason, he said that the Central Bank may reduce interest rates by 100-150 basis points in December.
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