The glaciers we know could disappear in the coming years If we continue with the climate of the last decade. This is the main conclusion reached by an international team of researchers who have scheduled the possible disappearance of these wonders of nature between now and the end of the century based on the different heating scenarios that could occur.
The study, led by researchers from the Federal Institute of Technology Zurich (ETH)the Swiss Federal Institute for Forestry, Snow and Landscape Research and the Vrije University of Brussels, appears this Monday in the journal Nature Climate Change and calls for ambitious measures to stop climate change.
Every tenth of a degree can make a huge difference
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“For the first time, we have calculated when each of the Earth’s glaciers will disappear,” says lead author Lander Van Tricht, a glaciologist at ETH Zurich. Scientists have calculated for the first time which glaciers in the world will cease to exist first, and what would be the calendar in which the rest would be lost due to climate change.
One of the most relevant findings is that the regions con many small glaciers at lower altitudes or near the equator are the most vulnerable to lose the frozen masses. These would include the Alps, the Caucasus, the Rocky Mountains and parts of the Andes and the African mountain ranges, which are located at low latitudes.
“In these regions, it is expected that more than half of all the glaciers disappear between the next 10 and 20 years“, Destaca Van Tricht.
How many will survive?
Taking into account the exponential increase in global warming today, scientists have modeled the rate of glacial retreat for scenarios in which it increases in 1.5 degrees, 2 degrees or 4 degrees above pre-industrial levels at the end of the century.
At the planetary level, with an increase in more than 4 degrees of global temperature In 2100 there would only be about 18,000 glaciers left on the planetcompared to the 100,000 that would be maintained if 1.5 degrees are not exceeded.
In the case of the Alpeswith an increase of 1.5 degrees only 12% of glaciers would survive by the end of the century (approximately 430 of the 3,000 still remaining in 2025). With more than 2 degrees only 8% would remain (about 270 glaciers), and with 4 degrees more there would barely be a trace of 20 glaciers left (about 1%).
In the RockiesIn America, around 4,400 glaciers would resist in a 1.5 degree rise scenario (25% of the current 18,000 glaciers); while with 4 degrees there would only be 101 left (which represents a loss of 99%).
In The Andes y Asia Centralaround 43% of glaciers would survive a 1.5 increase scenario; but at 4 degrees only about 950 glaciers in the Andes would survive (94% would be lost) and only about 2,500 in Central Asia (which represents a decrease of 96%).
Several extinction peaks
The researchers have also calculated what they call the “peak glacier extinction,” which would occur when the number of glaciers that disappear in a single year reaches its maximum. After that peak, annual loss rates slow because most of the smaller glaciers have already disappeared.
With an increase of 1.5 degreesthe extinction peak would be reached around 2041when they would disappear approximately 2,000 glaciers in just one year. While with an increase of 4 degreesthe peak would move to 2055but it would mean the loss of about 4,000 glaciers in one year.
“May the peak occur later with more intense warming may seem paradoxical. The reason is that in warmer conditions, not only do small glaciers completely melt, but also the biggest ones disappear“says another of the authors, Professor of Glaciology at the ETH Zurich, Daniel Farinotti.
Political, economic and cultural implications
The authors emphasize that, compared to previous studies that focused on measuring glacier loss by mass and volume (which allowed projections on sea level rise and water resource management), this new approach has other political, economic and cultural implications.
Half of the glaciers may disappear before the end of the century, threatening populations and ecosystems
“The melting of a small glacier barely contributes to sea level rise. But when a glacier disappears completely, can seriously affect tourism in an area“, Van Tricht points out in that sense. “It also assumes that every tenth of a degree counts to stop the decline. Ambitious climate measures must be adopted urgently,” Farinotti emphasizes.
