“I have the same situation (as with electricity – no) with gas, in which the capping will be removed on March 31, 2026, this year. I took all the operators since September, I calculated what I can do. There are already offers on the market with a penny higher than the capped price. There are offers at the same price as the capped price or even lower, because I adjusted things ahead of time. And I also prepared with option B, the one in which, due to international conditions, I don’t know, they bomb the Russians do something through Ukraine, we have supply problems, we have interconnection problems at our border or any other international reason independent of us, let me calculate how for a year I will gradually decrease this ceiling so that the common man will no longer feel the same dramatic increase and maybe even the doubling of bills”said Bogdan Ivan, on Antena 3.
The Minister of Energy stated that the natural gas market will be liberalized so that the bills do not “boom”.
“So we are prepared for gas, it will not be the same dark scenario as it was for energy, that is very clear that I am dealing with it. I do not want to attack anyone, but I repeat, I would have done differently and am doing differently for gas. How did we prepare these things? With sufficient gas liquidity in the market, with bilateral contracts that work for at least 2 years from now, with liquidity including on international markets in the region that when we need balancing we can get a very good price, with the largest natural gas transport network in the Central and Eastern Europe region, I made sure, by bringing all these people to the table, that I created the legal mechanisms by which the price would not increase on March 31st”, said Bogdan Ivan.
How much did the gas price cap cost?
The energy crisis triggered in Europe opened with 2021 pushed Romania into an unprecedented situation: electricity and gas prices increased rapidly, a situation that risked turning into a difficult burden for millions of households and for a large part of the economy. The effect of capping allowed the population to remain at a manageable level, at a time when prices in the European markets had reached historic highs, according to a December analysis signed by Dumitru Chisăliță, president of the Intelligent Energy Association.
According to the accumulated data until 2025, the total cost of these interventions amounts to approximately 30 billion lei. Of these, approximately 18 billion lei were used to cover electricity, while approximately 12 billion lei went to natural gas. In total, the scheme was applied for more than three years and covered both household consumers and an important part of the economic environment.
However, as the analyst warns, capping was no longer a real measure of social protection for gas, after 2023. It was a disguised financing operation of the Romanian state, built on postponements, hidden debts and transfer of costs to final consumers.
“The state promised money to the suppliers. It did not pay them. The suppliers borrowed from the banks to support the scheme imposed by law. And the cost of these loans is not borne by the state, the one that pushed for them to be made, but will be recovered, discreetly, from the population”, explains Dumitru Chisăliță.
Analyzing for the period 2020 – 2025, the evolution of the average price actually paid by customers as a result of capping according to ANRE data and the forecasts of the average price of natural gas that would have been formed on a free market, if the price cap was not applied (AEI estimate) and the price estimates for the two scenarios for the next 4 years, the following can be found:
– in the year 2022, people paid an average price lower by approx. 26% compared to the estimated average price that would have existed in a free market.
– in the period from 2023 to 2025, people paid an average price that was about 14% higher than the estimated price that would have existed on the free market.
– between 2026 and 2028, we estimate that people will pay an average price that is about 18% higher than the maximum price during this period.
