Health officials in France are monitoring a potential resurgence of COVID-19 cases as summer approaches.The France Public Health Bulletin reported on Wednesday, May 28th, an increase in COVID-19 related emergency room visits among adults. According to Le Monde, Bruno Lina, Director of the National centre for Respiratory Viruses in Lyon, has observed “a beginning of epidemic recovery, but whose size is uncertain.” The increase, while present, remains relatively small: “+25 % or +41 passages in 15-74 year olds, and +32 % or +44 passages in 75 and over.”

New variant Detected in Southeast Asia

The rise in concern stems from the emergence of a new variant, NB.1.8.1, a sub-lineage of Omicron, within French borders. Approximately a dozen cases have been identified in the Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes and New Aquitaine regions.

First detected in January, scientists suspect this strain is responsible for a surge in cases across Southeast Asia, especially in Hong Kong, where the epidemic reached peak levels over a year ago.

“A beginning of epidemic recovery, but whose size is uncertain.”

Experts are also wary of “immune exhaust,” a phenomenon where the virus evolves to evade immunity acquired through previous infections or vaccinations. A Chinese study, released on May 1st and awaiting peer review, suggests this variant may possess a growth advantage exceeding 80%, enabling faster cellular penetration and reproduction, thereby increasing transmissibility.

Currently, this variant accounts for “more than 5 % of the circulating viruses” in France, according to Bruno Lina, speaking with Le Monde. Though, he cautions that “all the conditions are met for a notable recovery.”

Vaccination Rates Remain Suboptimal

France’s collective immunity to COVID-19 has decreased due to reduced virus circulation in recent months. Furthermore, vaccination coverage, especially among high-risk populations, is not optimal.

Data from late February indicates that only 21.7% of individuals aged 65 and over, and 8.2% of those under 65, had received vaccinations. On May 23rd, the World Health Organization classified NB.1.8.1 as a variant under monitoring (VUM), the lowest alert level…for now.