Shipping giant FedEx (FDX) is set to release its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings report after trading closes on Tuesday. Wall Street analysts are generally optimistic about the company’s prospects.

According to Visible Alpha, of the 14 analysts tracking FedEx, 12 have given the stock a “buy” rating, while the remaining two recommend a “hold.” Their average price target is $281, suggesting a potential upside of approximately 24% from the stock’s closing price on Friday.Year-to-date, however, the stock has declined by almost 20%.

The consensus estimate for FedEx’s fourth-quarter revenue is $21.82 billion, a slight decrease of just over 1% compared to the same period last year. However, adjusted earnings per share are projected to increase by more than 8% to $5.88, reflecting the company’s ongoing cost-reduction initiatives.

In the prior quarter, FedEx’s results fell short of analyst expectations, leading to a lowered full-year outlook for the third consecutive quarter, attributed to a “very challenging operating environment.”

“Fiscal 2026 outlook will likely be more critically important for the stock than tuesday’s fourth-quarter results.”

Tariffs and Uncertainty: Analysts at UBS and morgan Stanley Express concerns

Ahead of the earnings release, UBS analysts have adjusted their price target for FedEx shares downward from $331 to $311. Their 2026 profit estimate was also revised to account for “a more muted volume and revenue backdrop and meaningfully less margin improvement in both Federal Express (FEC) and Freight,” according to their report.

Analysts at Morgan Stanley, who have assigned an “underweight” rating and a $200 price target to FedEx, anticipate that the company will miss estimates for the fiscal fourth quarter. They foresee a “noisy miss” despite the quarter marking the conclusion of the company’s “DRIVE” savings program. Their concerns stem from “inflationary pressures, one fewer operating day, tariff-related volume headwinds, and [buisness-to-business] weakness.” They also suggest that the fiscal year 2026 outlook will be a more critical factor for the stock’s performance than the immediate fourth-quarter results.