Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma Prognostic Model and Biomarker Identification

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Advancements in Understanding and Treating Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma


Discovering New Insights into Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma

Esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) is a significant public health concern, ranking among the top deadly cancers globally. With high incidence rates in countries like China, researchers are striving to uncover the underlying mechanisms and develop more effective treatment strategies.

The Prevalence and Impact of Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma

According to recent studies, ESCC is the sixth most frequently diagnosed and fourth leading cause of cancer-related deaths in China. This malignancy accounts for about 95% of all esophageal carcinoma cases. Despite advancements in treatment, ESCC remains challenging to manage, often detected at later stages when the prognosis is poor.

Research Methodology

To advance our understanding of ESCC, researchers have employed a comprehensive approach, leveraging vast datasets from the Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) and Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) databases. They analyzed RNA-sequence data, clinical information, and survival outcomes from 171 ESCC patients to identify key genes and pathways involved in the disease.

Data Sources

For this study, researchers accessed RNA-seq data from 11 normal esophageal tissues and 161 cancer tissues, including relevant clinical parameters and survival data. Additional datasets from GEO provided single-cell analyses of tumor and paracancerous tissues, enhancing the study’s scope and depth.

Identifying Key Genes and Candidate Markers

Using statistical methods and bioinformatics tools, researchers screened for differentially expressed genes (DEGs) and key module genes. They performed univariate Cox regression analysis to identify genes associated with survival and utilized LASSO regression to finalize a predictive model. Four genes—OSM, FABP3, MICB, and FAM189A2—were identified as significant prognostic markers.

Constructing Risk Models

The study involved dividing the ESCC dataset into training and validation sets to construct and validate a risk model. The risk score formula was derived based on the identified markers, providing insights into patient prognosis. The model demonstrated high accuracy and reliability, with robust validation across different datasets.

Figure 3 Construction of the risk model and its validation in the training set. (a) Univariate Cox regression analysis of candidate genes was performed. (b) The prognostic genes (OSM, FABP3, MICB, and FAM189A2) used to construct the risk model were screened by LASSO regression analysis. (c) Survival in the low-risk and high-risk groups of the training set was determined by the K-M curves. (d) The accuracy of the risk model assessed in the training set was evaluated using ROC curves. (e) The survival status of different risk groups was analyzed in the training set based on survival curves.

Abbreviations: LASSO, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator; ROC, receiver operating characteristic.

Analyzing Functional Pathways and Immune Interactions

Functional enrichment analysis revealed that the candidate genes were involved in pathways such as neuroactive ligand-receptor interactions, ribosome signaling, and chemokine signaling. These pathways play crucial roles in cancer progression and could be potential targets for therapeutic interventions.



Figure 6 Functional enrichment analysis and pathway analysis of OSM, FABP3, MICB, and FAM189A2. (a) Functional enrichment analysis of different risk groups. (be) GSEA of OSM (b), FABP3 (c), MICB (d), and FAM189A2 (e).

Immune cell infiltration, particularly mast cells and neutrophils, significantly correlated with ESCC progression. These cells interact with the tumor microenvironment, promoting cancer growth and metastasis. Targeting these immune cells could offer new therapeutic strategies.



Figure 7 Screening of differential immune cells. (a) Enrichment scores of 28 infiltrating immune cells were calculated using the ssGSEA algorithm. (b) The differences in enrichment scores between the low-risk and high-risk groups. “*” represented p p p p c) Correlations of OSM, FABP3, MICB, and FAM189A2 with different immune cells. “ns” represented no significance, “*” represented p p p d) The expression of 48 immune checkpoints extracted from the literature was analyzed with TCGA-ESCA, and differences in expression between the low-risk and high-risk groups were determined. “*” represented p p p p e) Correlations between the immune score, stromal score, and ESTIMATE score of ESCA samples in TCGA-ESCA and risk scores were assessed using Spearman’s method.

Abbreviation: ssGSEA, single-sample gene set enrichment analysis.

Exploring Regulatory Networks and Drug Sensitivity

Research also delved into the regulatory networks involving the identified genes. MicroRNAs and long non-coding RNAs were linked to these genes, forming complex interactions that may influence cancer growth and drug responsiveness. Additionally, tumor mutational burden (TMB) analyses provided insights into potential therapeutic targets.



Figure 8 Construction of the regulatory network of OSM, FABP3, MICB, and FAM189A2. (a and b) TMB analysis of the mutation status of the genes in the low-risk and high-risk groups, with the top 20 mutated genes in each group are illustrated. (c) The differences in TMB between the low-risk and high-risk groups were assessed using K-M curves. (d) The IC50 values of the common chemotherapeutic drugs for each sample were considered to screen drugs that are effective for treating ESCA patients. “*” represented p p e) Construction of the complete lncRNA‒miRNA‒mRNA network of OSM, FABP3, MICB, and FAM189A2. (f) Construction of the transcription factor–mRNA network of OSM, FABP3, MICB, and FAM189A2.

Single-Cell Analysis and Molecular Insight

Single-cell RNA sequencing revealed the heterogeneity of mast cells and neutrophils in ESCC tumors. These cells exhibited differential expression patterns, suggesting that they play distinct roles in tumor progression. Understanding these molecular interactions can guide the development of targeted therapies.



Figure 9 Mast cells and neutrophils were identified as key cells. (a) Highly variable genes of OSM, FABP3, MICB, and FAM189A2 were screened in the single-cell dataset (GSE196756). (b and c) PCA of GSE196756 was performed for dimensionality reduction. (d) UMAP clustering analysis of cells was conducted (the cells were divided into 14 clusters). (e) Annotation of cell clusters as different cell types based on the marker genes. (f) The key cells (mast cells and neutrophils) were screened by analyzing the expression of OSM, FABP3, MICB, and FAM189A2 in different cell types in ESCA and normal samples.

Abbreviation: PCA, principal component analysis.

Real-World Validation

To validate the findings, researchers conducted quantitative real-time PCR (qRT-PCR) on patient samples from the Wenzhou Medical University. This approach confirmed

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