Čelákovice offered 19 surrounding municipalities to admit their children to kindergarten or elementary school for free. They have a fifth of their capacity free. “In the coming years, there will be a fight for every ‘head’,” says the deputy mayor of Čelákovice, Petr Studnička (ODS), referring to the rapid decline in births.
Such a challenge may seem unusual in a village just outside of Prague, where more and more people are moving and the schools, on the other hand, can hardly accommodate all the children, but the decline in the number of births has already arrived here as well. While ten years ago, an average of 200 children were born in Čelákovice per year, in recent years it has been only 50.
“Now the blow is coming – we can already see the decline in kindergartens and it will also reach primary schools to a greater extent. This way, there will probably be no need to look for replacements for kindergarten teachers who are retiring. We are then considering using one of the kindergarten buildings in a different way,” adds Studnička as they think about the future in Čelákovice.
At the same time, just a few kilometers away, parents are searching in vain for a school that would take their children. In some parts of Prague, as well as in Pilsen and Brno, for example, enrollments in primary schools will have to be drawn by lottery in the future, because there will not be enough capacity even for children in the catchment area.
This is the paradox that awaits the Czech Republic in the future, and the new analysis of the education information center EDUin also draws attention to it. While part of the Czech Republic will be almost depopulated, so it will be difficult to keep the local schools in operation and the remaining children will have to commute elsewhere, elsewhere they cannot do without the unconditional construction of entire new schools.
“This is a topic that should be one of the most important for political representatives both at the state and local government levels. The new leadership that will emerge from this year’s municipal elections will not avoid it,” explains the author of the analysis, Nikola Šrámková.
In 2024, the Czech Republic fell to a historical low in the birth rate. Only 84 thousand children were born. At the same time, five years ago it was almost 112 thousand. It probably turned out even worse last year, but we will have to wait a few more weeks for the official data from the Czech Statistical Office. From the Seznam Zpráv analysis, which is based on data from maternity hospitals, it appears that only about 77,000 children were born.
But the decline is not uniform. While in the Nymburk district only ten percent fewer children were born in 2024 than five years earlier, in the Rokycany district it was a full 35 percent drop. You can see the overview by district in the detailed map:
The comparison of individual municipalities with extended scope is even more dramatic. While in Nepomuk in the Plzeň region or Lysá nad Labem in the Central Bohemia region, almost 10 percent more children were born in five years, in Ostrov in the Karlovy Vary region, 47 percent less.
Schools in danger
It will therefore be necessary to plan the capacities of schools in a completely different way than before. Again to remind you of a completely different reality – according to PAQ Research’s calculation, 486 municipalities will have to find a way to save kindergartens due to the decline of children, while 343 municipalities face the exact opposite problem. In the coming years, it is so clear that the municipalities do not have a chance to deal with the challenges on their own.
“When I take the demography into account, I don’t see it as a horror that is coming at us, even if I could, but as an opportunity,” says Minister of Education Robert Plaga (for ANO), saying that it is a chance for founders to take care of the quality of their schools, because it is about their competence and responsibility.
One possible solution is agreements between municipalities. This is how it works, for example, in Pardubice, where the surrounding municipalities pay for their children to have a place in the regional capital’s school.
“We are following the path of active cooperation with the surrounding municipalities, where we have concluded 14 agreements on joint catchment school districts. These municipalities then contribute to the operating costs related to the admitted pupils,” explains the deputy mayor of Pardubice, Jakub Rychtecký (Žijeme Pardubice).
Even in this case, of course, it is not always an easy discussion. Years later, due to rising costs, Pardubice increased this fee, from the previous four thousand crowns per pupil to six thousand. From next year it should be nine thousand. However, some municipalities complain that such price increases are too sudden.
But Pardubice went even further in cooperation with two municipalities – Dubany and Starý Jesenčany. They divided equally the costs of the extension of the kindergarten in Dražkovice, Pardubice, and both municipalities will thus be able to send their children there, although Pardubice will continue to establish the kindergarten.
Government: Merger is the sensible way to go
If there is anything EDUin recommends, it is broader cooperation between municipalities – for example in the form of a community of municipalities. So far, however, such a new form of cooperation from 2024 has not taken off much. It does not offer many benefits to municipalities. There is, for example, a lack of financial benefits that would motivate such a step.
“The historically strong autonomy of municipalities often leads to fears of losing control over the school their children attend,” analyst Šrámková points out one of the barriers to expanding cooperation.
But as Seznam Zprávy described, the current government is aware that the fragmentation of the Czech Republic can hinder economic growth. And so greater motivation for joining and cooperation is planned. “For me, merging agendas while preserving the autonomy of municipalities is a reasonable way,” Vice Prime Minister and Minister of Industry Karel Havlíček from ANO said earlier for Seznam Zprávy.
So far, only one preference applies in education. A joint school across municipalities receives 20 percent more money from the budget allocation of taxes for each pupil than an independent school. But so far only a few founders have resorted to such a form of connection. At the same time, experts recommend that municipalities get involved.
“We estimate that 40 to 60 percent of kindergartens and elementary schools will be threatened by the cancellation,” warns Dan Jiránek (ODS) from the Union of Towns and Municipalities about the concrete impact of the demographic decline.
In the future, the municipalities will not avoid changing their approach to establishing schools either, because it will not be financially viable to run a school for a few individuals – if we are talking about kindergartens, which will be affected first by the demographic development.
So far, however, the municipalities are also facing a very basic problem. They do not have basic forecasts of how things will look for them in terms of the number of children. They very often do not have their own professional capacity for this. For example, the Ministry of Education issued a projection for kindergartens, but only at the level of municipalities with extended scope.
The question remains to what extent the impact of demographic decline on municipalities and schools will be controlled. In other words, will it not happen that some municipalities will simply close schools because they will not have the money to operate them, and parents will suddenly be faced with the desperate question of where their children should go to school and how far from home it will be.
