Meteorologist José Rubiera informed this Saturday that Melissa is now a hurricane, it quickly gains power in the very warm waters of the Caribbean and shows clear signs of internal organization.
In his YouTube channel, the expert warned that it could arrive as a hurricane of great intensity for the Cuban east and that, although the vortex “is not yet completely vertical”it will be “in a few hours”.
This condition, associated with very high ocean energy — waters of 30 to 31 ° C with a warm layer up to 120 meters thick — favors a rapid intensification of the system.
Rubiera located the center of the hurricane at approximately 200 kilometers southeast of Kingston (Jamaica) and stressed that rain represents the main short-term danger for the south of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, where very high accumulations have already occurred in recent days.
For Jamaica, he reported a exceptionally serious scenario : accumulations of 500 to 750 millimeters in three days (Saturday, Sunday and Monday) in mountainous areas, with flooding, landslides and very strong tides on the southern coast, in addition to hurricane winds of high intensity for an exceptionally prolonged period due to the slow movement of the cyclone near the island. He called what might happen there catastrophic event.
On the trajectory, he explained that the models — previously scattered — became concentrated and show a turn towards the northeast when a depression at height “captures” the system.
Even with this greater consistency, he insisted that it is not possible to specify the exact point of impact: the range of solutions extends from different entries through eastern Cuba to an option through Haiti.
With all this, he felt that the danger is growing for the eastern region of Cuba between Tuesday and Wednesday, with very heavy rains which would start well before, extremely violent winds and strong swells on the south coast and, subsequently, also on the north coast, as the system crosses and accelerates its exit towards the Atlantic.
The specialist emphasized that all of the trajectories extend over eastern Cuba and the Haitian zone, and that the official cone of the National Hurricane Center now seems narrower than in previous days, a sign of greater reliability in the general scenario, although “there is still a lot to be clarified” regarding the deadlines and the crossing point.
Recalls that we should not consider the hurricane “as a point”, because its impacts cover a wide area which exceeds the central line of the forecast.
In his operational conclusion, Rubiera asked to follow the information step by step.
Rain will continue to fall on southern Hispaniola through the weekend; Jamaica will face several days of winds, swells and flooding; and, once the trough accelerates the system, the east of Cuba could experience the effects of a hurricane of high intensity, with the advantage that the transit would be faster than in Jamaica, thus reducing the exposure time – but not the dangerousness – of the main effects.
