The news has gone almost unnoticed in recent weeks, but it has an enormous weight in global balances: between October 2024 and October 2025 il China’s trade surplus with the European Union reached approx 310 billion dollarsexceeding for the first time that recorded against United Statesstopped at approximately 302 billion. An overtaking that has not been seen – the 2008 financial crisis aside – in the recent history of international trade relations.
Europe becomes Beijing’s first “deficit customer”.
The result is clear: The EU’s trade deficit with China is now the largest in the worldofficially surpassing the American one. A paradigm shift that reflects Europe’s growing dependence on Chinese imports, especially in strategic sectors: electric automotive, batteries, solar panels, industrial machinery and technological components.
The great post-US adjustment
The data fits into the so-called “great adjustment” in global trade. Tensions between Washington and Beijing, including tariffs, export controls and technological restrictions, have progressively reduced the growth of Sino-American trade. China has therefore reallocated part of its exports to Europea large, rich and still relatively open market, at least until the tightening of recent European industrial policies.
Beijing sharpens its (commercial) weapons
For Beijing, overtaking is a silent victory, but also a necessity. The Chinese economy remains strongly export-oriented and Europe has become a fundamental shock absorber to absorb excess internal production capacity. It is no coincidence that Brussels is today the main battleground: anti-dumping investigations, duties on Chinese electric cars, anti-subsidy measures and new rules on economic security are the European response to an increasingly unbalanced relationship.
The EU between industrial defense and the risk of dependence
China’s overtaking reignites the debate within the Union: How much can Europe afford to depend on Beijing? The Commission speaks openly about de-riskingnot of decouplingbut the numbers show that the path is anything but simple. Reducing the deficit means investments, common industrial policy and strategic choices that the EU has so far struggled to make operational.
A geopolitical signal, not just an economic one
The new European record in the Chinese surplus is not just a question of trade. It’s a geopolitical indicator: while the US-China confrontation remains head-on, Europe risks becoming the weak link in the global chain, caught between the need to defend its own industry and the difficulty of giving up competitive supplies.
