China’s Military Exercises: A Threat to Taiwan’s Security and Global Trade Routes?
China has openly expressed its desire to reclaim Taiwan, possibly through a naval blockade and supply cutoff. Recent military exercises focused on thwarting potential US intervention.
Understanding the December 2024 Exercises
The Japanese Institute for National Fundamentals analyzed a significant military exercise conducted by China in December 2024. Aimed at deterring US forces from entering Taiwan’s vicinity, the drill demonstrated China’s strategic capabilities.
China deployed 18 destroyers and frigates east of the “first island chain,” stretching from Japan’s Nansei Islands to the Philippines. This strategic move was deliberate, aiming to deny access to US warships.
The exercise, spanning from December 6 to 12, utilized an anti-access/area denial (A2AD) strategy. This tactic focused on preventing US forces from crossing the first and second island chains, which run from Guam to Japan’s Izu Islands.
Experts consider this the largest military exercise in China in nearly three decades. Beyond its demonstration of blockade capabilities, the drill highlighted China’s projection of power across the First Island Chain, encompassing the South and East China Seas.
Coordination Across Chinese Theaters
A notable development included coordinated efforts between the PLA Eastern, Southern, and Northern Theater Commands. This extensive combined arms exercise exerted significant pressure on Taiwan and its allies.
During the three-day drills, over 134 PLA warplanes conducted exercises near the islands. Additionally, more than 60 PLA Navy warships and 30 Coast Guard vessels were deployed from the South China Sea to Japan’s Ryukyu Islands.
Chinese forces practiced attacking foreign ships, blocking maritime channels, and intercepting commerce vessels without engaging in live-fire training. The PLA Navy also erected two barriers southeast of Taiwan, further restricting access to the First Island Chain.
Taiwan’s Vulnerability to Blockade
Taiwan’s geographic position makes it particularly susceptible to a naval blockade. Its population, industry, and ports are concentrated on its western flank, closest to China. A blockade could be achieved by deploying ships and submarines to restrict maritime access.
China could also dominate the skies with missiles and fighter jets, further isolating Taiwan. The strategic significance of the Taiwan Strait, one of the busiest commerce routes globally, underscores the potential impact of such a blockade.
Ports like Kaohsiung and Taichung, located on Taiwan’s western coast, handle a considerable portion of maritime traffic in the Taiwan Strait. A strategic breach here could disrupt global supply chains.
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China’s Strategic Objectives
Chinese military writings emphasize the importance of seizing “three dominances” in key domains: information, maritime, and air. These are seen as crucial for executing a comprehensive blockade campaign.
The PLA Eastern Theater Command, which played a significant role in the recent exercises, is expected to lead any potential invasion of Taiwan. Training sessions on repairing runways following bombings stress their readiness for such scenarios.
Maki Nakagawa, a research fellow at the Japan Institute for National Fundamentals, notes that China is展示ing its ability to respond to attacks on its strategic bases by the US and Japan.
Incursions and Strategic Positions
China has increased its military presence around Taiwan, with frequent overflights near the median line, traditionally an informal boundary. Taiwan’s air force regularly scrambles to intercept these missions.
The PRC began aggressive incursions after two fishermen died when their speed boat capsized while fleeing a Taiwanese Coast Guard ship in February 2024. This incident exacerbated tensions and increased both sides’ assertiveness.
Controlling the restricted waters south of Kinmen could enable the Chinese Coast Guard to implement a tight quarantine or blockade, obstructing passage between these islands and the mainland.
Broader Strategic Implications
“The Science of Strategy,” a vital textbook for PLA officers, defines a strategic blockade as a means to destroy an opponent’s external economic and military connections, degrade operational capacity, and isolate the target.
The increasing frequency of Chinese military activities around Taiwan highlights its commitment to maintaining regional dominance. This tension not only affects Taiwan but also destabilizes the broader Asia-Pacific region and global trade.
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The Role of Allies
The involvement of Taiwan’s allies, particularly the United States, is critical in countering China’s growing military presence. US naval exercises and statements of support have been crucial in maintaining regional balance.
Conclusion
China’s recent military exercises demonstrate its willingness to use aggressive tactics to achieve its reunification objectives with Taiwan. The risk of a blockade could have profound implications for global trade and regional security.
Continuous monitoring and strategic planning by Taiwan and its allies will be essential to maintaining stability in the Taiwan Strait.
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