An increase of a third in cases and 44% more deaths annually in just three decades. These are the devastating figures about the future of breast cancer globally which foresees a study published this Monday in the journal The Lancet Oncology. Research predicts that by 2050 there will be 3.5 million cases and 1.4 million deaths annually. Early detection and prevention become more urgent than ever to change the course of the most common disease among women around the world.
“Cancer is increasing because early diagnosis methods are also increasing and improving,” explains Lorenzo Armenteros, spokesperson for the Spanish Society of General and Family Physicians (SEMG). The aging of the population also influences. But, for the expert, there is an even more important cause: the increase in cases that are being recorded “at much younger ages.”
Why cases are increasing in young women
While rates of new cases in older women have not changed substantially, those between 20 and 54 years old have increased by 29% between 1990 and 2023, according to the study, which includes data from 204 countries. “This increase in the incidence of breast tumors in young people is something that undoubtedly worries oncologists.“says Isabel Echavarría, scientific secretary of the Spanish Society of Medical Oncology and medical oncologist at the Gregorio Marañón University Hospital in Madrid. Of course, the absolute risk in young women remains lower than in those over 50 years of ageaccording to Arantxa Eraso, national coordinator of the Breast Cancer Group of the Spanish Society of Radiation Oncology.
At the moment, the exact cause of this increase is unknown. Experts say there is no single reason. There are several factors that can influence. Echevarría mentions early menarche – the fact that the first menstruation is coming earlier -, that women have fewer and fewer children and later, less breastfeeding, a sedentary lifestyle or obesity. “The greater the number of ovulatory cycles, there is a greater hormonal accumulation throughout life and this can also lead to changes in the probability of having breast cancer,” explains Armenteros.
Tips to prevent breast cancer
This is in addition to the fact that, in young women, the disease is often diagnosed in more advanced stages. This is indicated by Echavarría, who attributes it mainly to two reasons: that they are not included in the screening programs and a lower awareness that A young woman can also get breast cancer. In this sense, Armenteros advises all women to have basic knowledge of self-palpation. That is, knowing what the structure of your breast is like and If there is any alteration, consult your doctor immediately.. At the health center, she suggests asking how to do self-palpation correctly and at what time of the menstrual cycle it is best to do it.
Eraso, who is also Head of the Radiation Oncology Service of the Catalan Institute of Oncology (ICO), advises going to the doctor if there is a new lump in the breast or armpit, changes in the skin – retraction or persistent redness -, discharge from the nipple – especially bloody – or unexplained changes in shape or size. Also remember that “Population screening continues to be the most effective strategy to reduce mortality“Therefore, it recommends participating in organized screening programs from the age of 50 or earlier, depending on the regional program and risk factors.
It is also important to lead a healthy lifestyle. More than a quarter of health years lost to breast cancer are due to six modifiable risk factors, according to the study. These include high consumption of red meat, tobacco, high blood sugar and high body mass index (BMI). The authors advise not smoking, getting enough physical activity, reducing red meat consumption and having a healthy weight.
The contrast between high and low income countries
In 2023, 2.3 million cases of breast cancer will be recorded, according to the study. 73% occurred in high- and upper-middle-income countries. In these nations, although more and more cases are being registered, Survival continues to improve. In fact, breast cancer mortality rates fell on average by 30% between 1990 and 2023.
In Spain, the situation is even more hopeful. The mortality rate decreased by 41.9% between 1990 and 2023, from 23.9 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants in 1990 to 13.9 in 2023. As indicated by Olayinka Ilesanmi, a Nigerian doctor and epidemiologist who works for the African Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), these data reflect “success in the detection, diagnosis and treatment of breast cancer.”
Instead, Death rates nearly doubled in low-income countries, reaching 24 deaths per 100,000 women. “The growing burden of breast cancer is shifting to low- and lower-middle-income countries,” explains the study’s lead author, Kayleigh Bhangdia, from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington. In them, women often face “more advanced diagnoses, more limited access to quality health care, and higher mortality rates that threaten to overshadow progress in women’s health.”
