Bitcoin failed to sustain the breakout to $74,000 and fell back to $67,000 within a few days. Despite a wave of positive institutional news, macroeconomic factors dominate market action. Analysts warn: The correction may not be over yet. This also makes it clear: the gains were not an initial new bull market that many were hoping for, but a short-term thing.
Whales are selling into the recovery
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Large Bitcoin holders, known as whales, bought aggressively during the war-related sell-off in late February. Wallets holding 10 to 10,000 BTC accumulated massively between February 23 and March 3, when Bitcoin traded between $62,900 and $69,600. But when the price hit $74,000 on Thursday, the same wallets started taking profits. According to Santiment, they have since sold around 66 percent of their previously acquired positions.
At the same time, retail investors increased their buying as Bitcoin fell below $70,000. Wallets with less than 0.01 BTC continually increased their holdings. Santiment describes this pattern as a classic warning signal: “When retail buys while whales sell, it typically signals that the correction is not over yet.”
43 percent of Bitcoin supply in loss
Glassnode data sharpens the picture. Around 43 percent of the total Bitcoin supply is currently in loss. Every price increase hits sellers who have been underwater for weeks or months and want to get out when their cost prices are reached. That’s exactly what happened at $74,000: the recovery hit a wall of supply, both from profit-taking whales and holders looking to cut their losses.
The Crypto Fear and Greed Index fell six points to 12 on Saturday, signaling “extreme fear.” This is one of the lowest levels since the October crash.
Institutional news fizzles out
The past week brought a number of bullish developments for the crypto industry. Morgan Stanley appointed Bank of New York Mellon as custodian for its Bitcoin ETF exposure. Crypto exchange Kraken gained access to the Federal Reserve’s payment system. The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), owner of the New York Stock Exchange, invested in the crypto exchange OKX and valued it at $25 billion. US President Donald Trump called on traditional banks to work with the crypto industry.
In previous market cycles, any of this news could have triggered a rally. But the institutional adoption that the industry has been working towards for years now means Bitcoin is closely correlated with the Nasdaq and other risk assets. As the dollar index rose and interest rate expectations shifted, global stocks came under pressure. Bitcoin followed this trend.
Most important crypto assets: Gains from the last 7 days gone again
Overall, it can be seen that the brief upswing of the previous week during the first week of the Iran war is not lasting; the short-term gains have disappeared again, not only for BTC, but generally for the largest crypto assets:
| # | Name | Preis | 24h % | 7d% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bitcoin (BTC) | $66,962.64 | -1.41% | 0.91% |
| 2 | Ethereum (ETH) | $1,932.81 | -2.40% | -2.33% |
| 3 | BNB (BNB) | $614.74 | -1.94% | -1.01% |
| 4 | XRP (XRP) | $1.34 | -1.27% | -1.33% |
| 5 | Solana (SUN) | $81.65 | -3.17% | -3.74% |
| 6 | TRON (TRX) | $0.2866 | -0.82% | 1.87% |
| 7 | Dogecoin (DOGE) | $0.08836 | -2.19% | -4.70% |
| 8 | Cardano (ADA) | $0.2517 | -2.44% | -8.74% |
| 9 | Bitcoin Cash (BCH) | $446.56 | -0.82% | 0.06% |
| 10 | ONE BUT LEO (LEO) | $9.02 | -0.31% | 0.14% |
| 11 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) | $30.21 | -2.03% | -1.58% |
Macro factors dominate
The sell-off was mainly triggered by the strengthening of the US dollar after the conflict with Iran intensified. President Trump ruled out a negotiated solution, declaring: “There will be no deal with Iran.” This sent oil prices higher, fueled new inflation concerns and changed expectations for interest rate cuts, despite weak labor market data.
In addition, cracks appeared in the global private credit market. BlackRock reportedly began limiting withdrawals from its $26 billion private credit fund after a surge in redemption requests. This further unsettled investors.
Short-term holders take profits
Short-term Bitcoin holders transferred more than 27,000 BTC ($1.8 billion) to exchanges at a profit in the last 24 hours. According to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, this was one of the biggest spikes in recent months. This group is typically the most sensitive to market uncertainty and acts more like traders than long-term investors.
The only short-term investors currently in profit bought Bitcoin between a week ago and a month ago at a realized price of around $68,000. Buyers above this level are locking in their profits rather than expanding their positions.
Bright spots despite the downward trend
Despite the negative momentum, there are positive signals. According to a Binance Research report, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of around $787 million last week. These were the first positive weekly inflows since mid-January and suggest institutional investors are getting back in after weeks of sustained outflows.
Additionally, Bitcoin funding rates have fallen to their lowest levels since 2023. This shows that leveraged long positions have largely been unwound. Historically, such conditions create a cleaner foundation for more sustained rallies driven by spot demand rather than short-term speculation.
Outlook: $60,000 or $80,000?
The market is at a crossroads. Either the selling pressure is exhausted, the underwater supply is absorbed, and Bitcoin breaks out above $74,000 with conviction. Or purchasing power will be exhausted, retail investors will run out of capital and the support at $60,000 will be seriously tested.
The behavior of whales this week suggests that major holders are betting on the latter. With thin liquidity, a jittery market and a lack of clear catalysts, Bitcoin remains trapped in a volatile sideways trend for now, with huge intra-week moves failing to produce a sustainable net monthly move.
