Bitcoin Cycle Break: Börse Express Analysis

The start of the stock market year 2026 is under difficult circumstances for the crypto reserve currency. For the first time in history, Bitcoin recorded a loss in a so-called “post-halving year”, which calls into question the previously reliable four-year cycle. While the price is trying to bottom out after slipping below the $100,000 mark, massive capital outflows from institutional products are weighing on the recovery.

Critical brands in focus

The technical situation comes to a head at the beginning of January. Bitcoin is currently trading in a narrow trading range, testing a key long-term average line (20-month EMA) in the $88,000 area. Chart technicians see this as the last bastion before a possible further pullback to the April 2025 lows of around $74,500. On the upside, the $90,000 mark is proving to be a stubborn resistance against which attempts at recovery have recently failed. With a gap of almost 28 percent to the 52-week high, the path to new records remains long.

Institutional investors are withdrawing capital

The ongoing sales by institutional investors are primarily responsible for the current weakness. US-listed Bitcoin ETFs recorded their worst performance since their launch in the last two months of 2025. In total, around $4.57 billion flowed out of these products in November and December.

On the last trading day of last year alone, outflows totaled over $348 million, led by redemptions at heavyweights BlackRock and Ark Invest. On-chain data confirms this trend: Instead of the accumulation by “whales” (large investors) hoped for by small investors, they are more likely to use the current levels to reduce their positions.

Regulatory tightening

In addition to market technology, regulation is once again becoming more of a focus. Since January 1, 2026, the OECD’s “Crypto-Asset Reporting Framework” (CARF) has been in effect in 48 countries, which standardizes the automatic exchange of tax data in crypto transactions. In the USA, attention is also focused on the replacement of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), where the departure of Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw creates a Republican majority. Market observers expect this to result in a change in the pace of enforcement of regulations in the medium term.

Outlook: Impending sell signal

The situation will remain tense for the coming weeks. Technically, there is a risk of a so-called “death cross” on a weekly basis, in which short-term average lines fall below long-term ones – a classic bear market signal. To avoid a test of the $70,000 region in the first quarter of 2026, the support zone between $85,000 and $88,000 must be defended.