French Prime Minister François Bayrou is set to address the National Assembly before a crucial vote of confidence, a procedure that could perhaps lead to his ouster. This comes in the wake of the 2022 legislative elections, which left the government without an absolute majority.

Bayrou’s predecessors, including Élisabeth Borne, Michel barnier, and Gabriel Attal, had previously avoided soliciting such a vote after their policy speeches, given the risk that a simple majority against the Prime Minister would suffice to overthrow the government. Unlike a motion of censorship, which requires an absolute majority, this vote under Article 49 paragraph 1 of the Constitution presents a notable challenge for Bayrou.

Group Presidents in La Tribune

“Debt has been a deadly problem, it’s me or chaos”

The Prime Minister is scheduled to speak at 3 p.m., in what could be his final address to the national representation. Bayrou,who has already “hammered the same message in the media” regarding the dangers of debt,will have unlimited time to convince the representatives. Following his speech,eleven speakers,representing eleven parliamentary groups,will take to the tribune to respond and announce their group’s voting intentions.

Presidents of the groups are expected to participate in this historic day. According to Politico, the order of speakers will likely be: Boris Vallaud (PS), Laurent Wauquiez (Right Republican – LR), Cyrielle Chatelain (Environmentalists), Marc Fesneau (MoDem), Laurent Marcangeli (Horizons and Independents), Laurent Bânifous (Liot), Stéphane Phais (GDR – Communists), Éric Ciotti (Union des droits), Marine Le Pen (RN), Gabriel Attal (Set), and Mathilde Panot (LFI).

Gabriel Attal, representing the Ensemble group, will be allotted 35 minutes, while the RN, DR, and MoDem will each have 15 minutes.Other groups will have 10 minutes, and Philippe Bonnecarrère, representing the unaccompanied deputies, will have five minutes.

The Result of the Vote Will Not Be Known Before 7 p.m.

Following the speeches, François Bayrou will have the opportunity to respond from the government benches. The 574 deputies will then cast their votes using paper ballots in a customary manner. The final verdict is expected around 7 p.m.,or possibly later.

Concurrently, Élisabeth Borne will deliver the general policy discourse in the Senate, a formal procedure without a vote. Estimates suggest that around 330 elected officials,spanning from LFI to environmentalists,RN,UDR,LR,and PS,are likely to vote against the Bayrou government.

If the vote fails, Bayrou will be obliged to resign. Emmanuel Macron is expected to swiftly appoint a successor, aiming to avoid prolonged consultations. The goal is to expedite the process, unlike previous instances.