The Arab World’s Potential Leverage to Challenge Trump’s Gaza Proposal

The Arab world holds significant leverage to resist US President Donald Trump’s unprecedented proposal to occupy Gaza, expel more than two million Palestinians, and relocate them to Egypt and Jordan. This article delves into the strategies and potential levers available to Arab states.

Key Political Levers

Arab countries could exert substantial influence by suspending their peace treaties with Israel and defying normalization processes. Actions such as:

• Egypt and Jordan halting their peace agreements with Israel
• The United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan discontinuing normalization efforts

These steps would resonate deeply with public opinion in the region. A Washington-based Arab Center survey in 2023 and 2024 found that 89% of people in 16 Arab nations oppose relations with Israel.

Boosting Relations with Iran

Following Saudi Arabia’s reconciliation with Iran in 2023, which some view as undermining US interests due to Iran’s rivalry with the US in the Middle East, Arab states might further bolster ties with Tehran. This shift could pressure the US to revisit negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program, previously abandoned by Trump.

Diversifying Relationships with Asia

Arab states are enhancing their relations with Asian powers, diversifying their alliances and reducing dependency on the US. Recent inclusions in the BRICS bloc (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) by the UAE and Egypt demonstrate this trend. Other Arab countries could join, challenging the dominance of the Western G7.

China’s Growing Influence

China has significantly impacted Middle Eastern economies, especially Saudi Arabia. Over the past two decades, Chinese investments in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the UAE have reached substantial sums, illustrating Beijing’s influence in the region.

Non-Cooperation Strategies

Several Arab nations have stated their refusal to accommodate expelled Gazans, citing potential destabilization in their countries and the region. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Gulf states, Lebanon, and Syria are likely to follow. Other Arab countries could fill the void of US financial influence by extending aid to Jordan and Egypt.

Limiting Military and Economic Cooperation

Arab states have already imposed certain restrictions on US military presence and overflight rights. For instance, the UAE restricted US military use of its facilities for striking Iranian proxies. Such actions have increased recently, posing challenges to US military operations.

Reducing Consumption of US Goods

Arab nations imported $65.3 billion worth of US goods in 2023, with the bulk going to countries like the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt, and Morocco. By reducing US imports, these countries could wield economic leverage.

Leveraging Oil Exports

Although US oil imports from Arab producers have declined to eight percent, Europe imports 18% of Middle Eastern crude and 12% of gas. This provides Arab states with significant oil leverage over both the US and its western allies.

Conclusion

The Arab world’s collective action could significantly challenge Trump’s Gaza proposal. By strategically suspending political treaties, boosting ties with Iran, diversifying partnerships with Asia, and limiting military and economic cooperation with the US, Arab states possess considerable leverage to influence regional and global dynamics.

These moves could compel the US to reconsider its regional policies, particularly concerning the Gulf and its stance on Israel.

We invite you to share your thoughts on this crucial development in Middle East geopolitics. Your insights can contribute to a deeper understanding of regional dynamics.

Join the conversation:

• Comment below with your views.
• Subscribe to our newsletter for more updates.
• Share this article on your social media platforms.