Driven by improved business prospects and a change in the weighting of international banks, shares of Adecoagro rose more than 24% on Wall Street between yesterday and today. The jump occurred after Morgan Stanley will upgrade its recommendation on the company to “equal-weight” from “underweight”, with a price target of US$13 per share. Added to that Bank of America (BofA), which raised its price target to US$12.20 from US$9although kept its neutral rating, as reported Bloomberg.
Renewed market interest arrive in parallel to the presentation of the financial results for 2025 and, above all, the projections for 2026where the company anticipated a recovery in its numbers with a strong focus on the fertilizer business.
Adecoagro, which produces food, energy and now also fertilizers in South America – with operations in Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay – is seeking to consolidate this last segment after taking control Profertil. Adecoagro bought half of Profertil together with the Association of Argentine Cooperatives (ACA) from the international group Nutrien. Meanwhile, it later acquired the other half that YPF had. The entire operation was carried out for US$1,200 million and Profertil remained 90% for Adecoagro and the other 10% for ACA.
Looking ahead to this year, Adecoagro hopes that Profertil is one of the main growth engines. “We expect a recovery in results in 2026 driven by a full year of activity compared to 2025,” he said, after the fertilizer plant had 91 days without operations last year.
In that business, furthermore, the price context plays in its favor. The company highlighted a increase in urea prices, driven by the conflict in the Middle Eastwhile near the 85% of its estimated sales volume remains open at market prices. Added to this is a key factor: gas—which represents the 60% of costs—is insuredwhich opens the door to an improvement in margins.
In parallel, Adecoagro plans an improvement in its financial structure. “We seek to reduce our debt level driven by a higher expected generation of EBITDA, mainly in fertilizers and agriculture,” he indicated.
In the sugar, ethanol and energy business, the company anticipated a productive improvement in Brazil. “Cane productivity has recovered significantly and, assuming normal weather conditions, we forecast double-digit growth in grinding volume in 2026”, he noted.
In agriculture, meanwhile, the focus will be on efficiency. The company reduced the planted area by 22% by ceasing to operate fields with low profitability and moving towards higher value crops, such as specialty rice.
In this context, and within the framework of the Argentina Week in New York, the company’s CEO, Mariano Bosch, He announced that they are evaluating large-scale investments to expand the fertilizer business. “We are working on that, but we estimate a range of between 1500 and 2000 million dollars. The construction of a plant of this magnitude takes between three and four years,” he said in dialogue with Forbes.
A report of Valora Investment Grouppublished on Monday, stated that Adecoagro is presented today as an undervalued asset with potential for revaluation, by combining exposure to commodities essential with cash generation and real assets. In this framework, the analysts recommended taking a position in the company and that, at current prices, “it deserves an allocation of 3% to 10% in most portfolios.”
One of the central axes of the work is the valuation. According to the report, the stock is trading well below its intrinsic value: they projected a base scenario of US$22 per share, with room for additional increases in a favorable context, while in an optimistic scenario it could approach US$46. The underlying idea is that the market still does not fully reflect the company’s new profile.
The turning point, according to the report, is the acquisition of Profertil. “Adecoagro has just acquired a monopoly,” the report noted, highlighting that it is a business with strong cash generation—in the range of US$350 to US$390 million in annual EBITDA—and with potential for expansion.
He argued that geopolitical tensions—particularly in the Middle East—could affect a significant portion of global urea production, generating an imbalance between supply and demand. In this scenario, fertilizer prices would tend to rise, which positions Profertil—and, by extension, Adecoagro—as one of the main beneficiaries, also supported by access to competitive gas from Vaca Muerta.
Based on this change, the analysis is that Adecoagro should be read less and less as a purely agro-industrial company and more as a player linked to energy. In this framework, it could generate more than US$700 million of EBITDA by combining its ethanol and fertilizer businesses, which reinforces its character as a “macroeconomic hedge” in the face of inflation or rising inflation scenarios commodities.
