Agri Credit Growth 2025: +30.5% Forecast

by Archynetys Health Desk

Credit performance

In our country they are active approximately 670,000 agricultural businesses. It is a strategic and complex ecosystem, which integrates primary production, support services and related activities, and generates significant impacts on employment, sustainability and international competitiveness. At a territorial level, there is a strong concentration of companies in Southern Italy and the Islands, which represents 46.1% of the national total.

Based on EURISC, the CRIF Credit Information System, in the first half of 2025 companies in the agricultural sector recorded an increase in the amounts financed by +30,5% compared to the same period of the previous year. The comparison with the average of Italian companies highlights a difference of over 17 percentage points. This greater growth was mainly driven by Unsecured Mortgages and Loans: for this form of financing – the most widespread for operators in the sector with around two thirds of the total disbursed – there was a +33.3% for agriculture compared to the +24.5% observed for the total of Italian companies.

The growth in credit disbursed in the first half of 2025 was supported by a favorable regulatory frameworkwhich allowed operators in the agricultural sector to access forms of subsidized finance, encouraging investments aimed at the modernization of production structures, the adoption of innovative technologies and the transition towards sustainable agricultural practices, in line with the digitalisation and decarbonisation objectives of the sector. However, these instruments have only allowed a partial, albeit significant, coverage of the financial needs for investments, giving greater stimulus to the use of bank credit. In terms of type of business, for agriculture there is a more marked growth in the amounts paid for joint-stock companies (+40.8%) compared to companies and partnerships (+26.5%).

Credit risk remains stable and lower than the national average

From a credit risk perspective, as of June 2025, agriculture has a stable default rate compared to the end of the previous year e lower than the national figurestanding at 2.2% against a national average rate of 3.0%. Among the micro-sectors, livestock farming and related activities, with a default rate of 2.4%, show a higher risk than all companies in the agricultural sector. On the contrary, agricultural cooperatives record a very clear positive differential compared to the national average, with a default rate of 1.8%. In particular, the strong presence of predominantly mutual agricultural contribution cooperatives – where being a member is often a necessary condition for the valorisation, if not even the very survival, of the member’s primary activity – constitutes an element of risk mitigation which manifests itself in lower default rates compared to the entire universe of agricultural businesses.

Despite the uncertainty and complexity of the scenario, the prospects for the agricultural sector see default rates that will continue to remain at levels lower than the national figure, albeit with a slight growth expected in the next surveys starting from the end of 2025 data.

The dynamics of commercial payments

Commercial payment habits are also relevant to understanding the dynamics of the agricultural sector. On this front, one thing stands out less regularity by agricultural businesses compared to the national average. In Italy, 43.6% of companies pay when due while in agriculture this share stops at 34.1%. Furthermore, the territorial differences are significant, with the most critical situation being recorded in the South and Islands where only 27% of transactions are settled on time. However, the quarterly trend of payment habits confirms an improvement gradual for agricultural businesses. In fact, between the third quarter of 2023 and the same period of 2025, punctuality increased from 31.1% to 34.1%. At the same time, delays beyond 90 days decreased by almost one percentage point, going from 5.7% to 4.8%.

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