The polls for the mid-term legislative elections in Argentina closed at 6pm sharp local time. According to official data, turnout was 61%, the lowest since the return of democracy in 1983.
A few minutes after the polls closed, the first media rumors indicate a head-to-head fight between the two main contenders, La Libertad Avanza (Lla), of president Javier Milei, and the progressive Peronism of Fuerza Patria (FP). The latest polls had predicted a fight to the last vote between the LLA, at 36%, and the left-wing Peronist coalition Fuerza Patria (FP), at 34%.
The low turnout in the mid-term elections kept Argentine president Javier Milei in suspense until the last minute, intending to place the purple flags of his formation, La Libertad Avanza (Lla), in half the seats of the House and in a third of the Senate, to accelerate his economic programs, supported by Donald Trump‘s United States. The latest polls have predicted a head-to-head match between the LLA, at 36%, and the left-wing Peronist coalition Fuerza Patria (FP), at 34%.
Faced with strong devaluation pressures, a reserve crisis and the slowdown in economic activity, the US Treasury has committed to supporting the Argentine peso by putting on the table a 40 billion dollar aid package, to support the stability of the executive for the next two years of office. Argentina is an important match for the Republicans, also in light of a renewed interest in political influence throughout Latin America.
But Milei’s star seems to have dimmed a little and his recipe is faltering. After the surprising victory in the 2023 presidential elections with 56% of the vote, the ultra-liberalist arrived at the polls with a level of support that had dropped to a minimum – 38% – a sign that his recipe for tears and blood has begun to tire, despite his success in containing inflation, which went from 200 to 31%, and in fiscal balance. A result also achieved with spending cuts in sensitive sectors such as education and healthcare.
Some scandals that have affected his image also contributed to the decline in popularity. The president who had promised to fight against the corrupt political caste is weighed down by the case of the ‘Libra’ meme-coin – a crypto-currency that Milei had promoted on social media which then collapsed on the stock market ruining hundreds of investors. Added to this are the cases involving her sister Karina – in the smell of bribes for the purchase of a medicine order – and the investigation into the leading candidate of the LLA in the province of Buenos Aires, Luis Espert, forced to withdraw from the race for having obtained financing from a drug trafficker tried in the USA.
At the end of the electoral campaign, the president accused left-wing Peronism of wanting to overthrow the government and raised the specter of a return of “Castro-Chavista communism” to the country. But in the last rally held on Thursday in the city of Rosario, Milei was no longer brandishing the iconic chainsaw. He called on voters to “not give up” and to “seriously change Argentina”, promising for the second part of his mandate “the reforms that the country needs”.
The main opposition party, FP, has instead bet more on the tiredness of the electorate than on its own proposals. In the absence of the historical leader of the movement, Cristina Kirchner – forced under house arrest by a six-year sentence for corruption – the progressives, who still appear to be looking for a charismatic guide, have clung to the figure of the governor of the province of Buenos Aires, Axel Kicillof, hoping for a repeat of the result of September, when the progressives had confirmed the dominion over their bastion, the province of Buenos Aires.
In the absence of a nationwide count, analysts predict that once the polls close, a battle will open between the various contenders to impose a favorable interpretation of the vote. But in the case of an uncertain result, without a clear predominance, the markets will probably, starting from Monday, decide the winner, and Donald Trump himself will in that case be called upon to decide on the fate of Argentina.
Argentina, the presidential spokesperson insulted at the polls
Argentina’s presidential spokesman, Manuel Adorni, was insulted on his way to the polls: “You are rubbish, you and your entourage of servants. Traitor of the homeland,” they shouted at him, according to La Nacion. Adorni responded: “They use 19th century terminology.” And then he made an appeal for “people to go and vote”. “The single card system shows that we have made an important step forward in institutional quality”, he then underlined.
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