On Friday, it became known that US President Donald Trump will meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska next Friday.
The reactions have not been waiting. Former Trump adviser John Bolton has said, among other things, that it is a “great victory for Putin.”
“The best thing would not be not to hold the meeting at all- but it can both succeed in a bad way and fail in a bad way,” US Russia expert Michael Kimmage told Dagbladet.
Kimmage believes that the meeting can have fateful consequences for Ukraine, and believes it is “irresponsible” that neither Ukraine nor European countries are sitting at the negotiating table.
He envisions two different scenarios: Either Trump can get “success” – in mimics – and get an agreement on a ceasefire:
– can escalate the situation
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– This sounds attractive, and Trump will boast that he has negotiated Fred. But it would either involve territorial concessions from Ukraine, which I do not think Ukraine will agree to, or build expectations of a kind of unbelievable or kind Russia that is not right, says Kimmage and continues:
“This is how, by rushing against something you call peace, in fact, Trump starts the next, and perhaps an even worse, phase of the conflict over the next few months,” says Kimmage.
He is a professor of history and head of the Kennan Institute at the Wilson Center, with special expertise in US relationship with Russia and Ukraine. Kimmage has previously been responsible for Russia/Ukraine portfolio in the US Foreign Ministry.
The second scenario is more consistent with the pattern where Putin does not give anything, but humiliate Trump and force him to escalate the situation further.
– Trump Just sent two nuclear submarines to the Russia area, he has accused Putin of delaying, he now pushes India not to buy Russian gas. There is already an escalating tendency going on, and the meeting can make this accelerate very quickly, says Kimmage.
– a gift to Putin
– will be disastrous
Ukraine President Zelenskyj has a clear message to Putin and Trump:
– Ukrainians will not give up their country to occupiers.
Professor Kimmage believes that the meeting puts Ukraine and President Zelenskyj in an extremely difficult situation.
He refers to the disastrous meeting in the oval office in the winter of 2025.
– Since then, Zelenskyj has been good at not “being the problem” for President Trump. Of course, that is precisely what Russia will try to portray it as, to say “we are willing to a ceasefire. We want peace as much as you, President Trump. It is the Ukrainians who are slowing down, ”says Kimmage.
But at the same time, Zelenskyj cannot make concessions and relinquish territory, says Kimmage:
– It would be disastrous for his country. Ukraine is invaded from Crimea after Crimea was released to Russia in 2014. There is simply nothing Ukraine can do again.
He also says that Zelenskyj cannot agree to demilitarization of Ukraine or some kind of neutral status.
– It is absolutely incompatible with the basic needs of Ukrainian security and the expectations of the population of Ukraine. So this I think is out of date for Volodyymyr Zelenskyj.
At the same time, the Ukranian president must not annoy Trump too much, because Trump can then refuse to share intelligence, weapons and other resources.
– It is an extremely difficult balance Volodymyr Zelenskyj has to go. And the fact that he is not there in the room, that he does not get the opportunity to talk to Trump and Trump’s minimally manned team about this, is a big problem, says Kimmage.
– So, if we first talk about winners and losers, I’m not sure if Russia is already the winner here, but Ukraine is already the loser.
The war between Zelenskyj and Trump causes political commentator, Marie Simonsen, to react.
– Very close agreement
Trump stated on Truth Social Friday night that a peace hit is “very close”, with the change of territories that will “benefit both parties”.
The US president has not provided any further details on what such a proposal would look like.
But CBS News quotes sources with knowledge of the discussions, reporting that the White House is trying to convince European leaders to accept an agreement where Russia gets the entire Donbas region of the eastern Ukraine and retains Crimea.
Russia, on the other hand, will give up the Kherson and Zaporizjzja regions, which they partially occupy, as part of the proposed plan, according to CBS.
Earlier on Friday, the Wall Street Journal reported that Putin had proposed a similar solution to Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff during a meeting in Moscow.
– can harm the relationship with Europe
But Kimmage does not envisage that neither Ukraine nor European countries will accept the formal handover of territories, Crimea or Donbas, to Russia.
– We don’t really know what Trump promises, but he seems to promise an outcome that neither Ukraine nor Europe will support. And it’s not uncommon for Trump. He says things that are contrary to reality. But I’m not sure if Trump himself understands how much is at stake here, says the professor.
He continues:
– If the United States and Europe go in each direction in the question of how to deal with Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty, it becomes more difficult to support Ukraine in the middle of the war. That is why I almost feel a fear around this summit.
He is afraid that such an agreement can destroy the US -Europe relationship:
“When Trump talks about switching territories, it creates a fear with me, because I’m not sure he himself knows what he means by it,” says the professor.
He points out that in recent months after the NATO summit in June, Europe and Trump have collaborated quite well.
– This meeting can potentially harm this relationship, or even destroy it completely, which would really be negative. In my view, it would be really bad for Ukraine’s prospects and for the transatlantic approach to the war itself, says Kimmage.
– screamed in phone call
