The nodes of duties and uncertainty for the accusations to the Feds come to the comb. Company investments in the United States drop by 260 billion
On June 12, 2015 the Shenzhen stock index collapsed by 40% in a few hours. Shortly after, the Chinese Communist Party resigned the president of the stock exchange company, Gao Xiaojun, for alleged budget overflows in the restructuring of the headquarters. Ten years later – and without a stock exchange – the president of the United States of America is behaving in the same way with his central bank. For weeks, Donald Trump has been looking for a “right cause” in the costs of a construction site in the Federal palace – that is, the pretext – to fire their heads, Jay Powell. And it doesn’t stop there. Friday, after the release of weak numbers on new jobs in America in the last three months, Trump made the Bureau of Labor Statistics Erika Mcentarfer commissioner hunt, accusing it of manipulating the data “for political reasons”. No clue was provided to support the accusation.
The weight of the USA in the economic-financial system
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So far they had triggered public revenge against statisticals or central bankers, beyond China, only governments such as Argentina, Russia or Turkey: autocrazie or bankruptcy systems, not the superpower that emits the dominant currency of the global economy, the wider and widespread volume of government bonds and which weighs almost half of the market value of the world bags. Donald Trump perhaps makes it so simply because he feels very sure of himself. Or maybe for the opposite reason; Why The clues of the last few weeks could bring out the suspicion that the knots of his style and government choices, slowly, are all coming skilled to the comb.
The apparent calm of inflation
At first glance, that’s not the case. America is fine and continues to leave Europe at a sidereal distance. The last quarter recorded 3%growth in the United States, if the rhythm held in April, May and June was prolonged for next year. And the inflation on the personal consumption of families from the latest data has risen just 2.6 percent; The prices remain quite cold, with increases not distant from where the Fed wants to see them and in any case so under control that Trump has seen it saw us right. It does not seem at all that the greatest increase in duties since 1930 is generating the wave of increases that many critics of the president announced.
The dynamics below
It is only when scratching under the surface that everything is complicated. The first superpower of the planet has slower but more powerful gears than a post on the social media of its tycoon. Inflation has been climbing for months and precisely because of the duties it could accelerate since August, even if these have been taken since April. In fact, the rates on goods from abroad are taxes. To defend the profit margins, sooner or later the importers will want to download them at least partially on the prices in the showcases of New York or the restaurants in Chicago. SortAnd for now they have not done this much, there is a reason: only between January and March last – after the oath of Trump, but before the duties themselves – those importers had bought foreign goods for 211 billion dollars more compared to the same period of 2024; It was an increase of almost a third, according to the US census Bureau.
Stocks on exhaustion
The American retailers of Italian wines, French fashion or German chemistry have filled the warehouses by March to anticipate the customs increases. And so far they have managed to sell largely what they had bought before. But now the old stocks are ending and will be seen on September 11 – when the figure on American inflation of August will be released – if the price lists on new imports will not be so under control. The slow increases of the last few months risk becoming something more dangerous. Because in the meantime in the economy of Trump some cracks can be seen, although small compared to the voracins visible in Italy, Germany or France.
The drop in investments
The growth of 3 percent in the second quarter is largely the optical effect of the braking of imports (Statistically, subtract from the gross product) taken from April, when the duties were now in force and full warehouses. But the ads, braking and continuous turning of Trump must have generated neurosis and uncertainty, because The net investments of companies in America between April and June have collapsed by 260 billion dollars compared to the previous three months (according to the Fed of St. Louis). It is a drop of a quarter and is usually seen only before the recessions. The weakness in the opening of new jobs – I cost the messenger’s head from bad news, the Capa del Bureau of Labor Statistics – is explained in this way.
The growing inequality
This does not mean that Trump’s America goes to a recession. The seven Big Tech – Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, Apple, Amazon and Broadcom – continue to invest thousands of billions in artificial intelligence. On sunshine, over a third of the S&P 500 are now worth the large list of Wall Street, But theirs is not shared wealth. They give work, magnificently paid, to a few. And few others share their prosperity in the form of actions: one per thousand of the richest residents holds assets for 23 thousand billion dollarsfive times more than the entire less wealthy half of Trump’s America.
