At the beginning of November 2025, Sanae Takaichi, Japanese Prime Minister, spoke of a possible intervention by Japan in the event of a Chinese attack on Taiwan. This declaration triggered a coordinated information offensive, particularly visible in Chinese state media from the weekend of November 15 and 16, with already perceptible economic consequences.
On November 7, 2025, in Japan, an opposition MP questioned Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi on the notion of « survival-threatening situations »a legal concept allowing the deployment of the Japanese Self-Defense Forces. In response, Takaichi mentioned two hypotheses that could justify Japanese intervention. The first would involve an attempt to bring Taiwan under Beijing’s control by means of military force. The second hypothesis would revolve around an attack on American warships sent to break a possible Chinese blockade of Taiwan.
This statement angered China, triggering a coordinated and potentially economically costly information offensive, particularly visible in Chinese state media from the weekend of November 15-16.
China combines diplomatic pressure, military demonstration and information warfare
On the diplomatic side, the Chinese response was structured around a message of firmness. The Japanese ambassador to Beijing was summoned on November 13 and the Chinese Foreign Ministry demanded the immediate withdrawal of his « erroneous statements “. On November 20, China announced that Premier Li Qiang would not meet Sanae Takaichi at the G20 summit. The following day, China’s Foreign Ministry sent a letter to the UN’s top secretary, denouncing Takaichi’s comments on Taiwan and accusing Tokyo of destabilizing the region.
At the same time, China’s Defense Ministry warned that any use of force or attempted interference by Japan in the Taiwan issue would lead to a « bitter defeat » against the People’s Liberation Army. The ministries of National Security (equivalent to the French Ministry of the Interior) and Foreign Affairs have both issued messages with a dissuasive tone, emphasizing that « those who cross the red line will pay the price “. At the same time, the state press highlighted a Chinese coast guard patrol around the disputed Diaoyu/Senkaku islands, presented as proof of « determination » of Beijing to defend its sovereignty.
On a narrative level, China orchestrated a personal delegitimization campaign against Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi. The editorials of Global Timesof China Daily a you People’s Daily describe Takaichi as the embodiment of “resurgent militarism” and “right-wing revisionism.” These titles participate in a strategy of cognitive influence aimed at reviving the historical traumas of the Second World War and associating any assertion of Japanese defense or sovereignty with a return to historical militarism. Many published caricatures of the Japanese Prime Minister point in this direction:
Chinese state media also relayed criticism from Taiwan and Japan itself: « provocative remarks », « manifestations », « fears of a return to war “. The Chinese press also relayed symbolic support aimed at giving credibility to the Chinese story abroad; like the interview with Japanese singer MariA stating « jI will always support [le principe d’] one China ».
These various criticisms are proven but with a very low impact (we are talking about a few hundred people in the demonstrations). In fact, the Takaichi government’s popularity rating has reached nearly 70% according to Kyodo News (November 16). However, on the Taiwanese question, Japanese opinion remains more divided: 48.8% of Japanese support the exercise of the right to collective self-defense in the event of conflict, compared to 44.2% who oppose it.
Beijing’s information war inflicts real economic cost on Tokyo
On the economic level, Beijing has sought to transform its diplomatic and media communication into a lever of constraint. On November 15, China’s Ministry of Culture and Tourism issued an official warning urging Chinese citizens to “consider cautiously » their trips to Japan, citing an increase in « crimes against Chinese nationals » and the presence of « anti-Chinese extremist comments » relayed by « far-right elements ».
This rhetoric quickly produced tangible economic effects. On November 17, Japanese stocks related to tourism, retail and transportation recorded sharp declines at the opening of the Tokyo Stock Exchange:
- -11% pour Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings (big brand)
- -9,4% pour Ryohin Keikaku (Muji)
- -5,6% pour Fast Retailing (Uniqlo),
- -3,9% pour Japan Airlines.
These falls reflect the anticipation of a decrease in Chinese tourists, while they represented, according to the Japanese National Tourism Office, around 24% of total visitors to Japan in September 2025.
Furthermore, Chinese state media simultaneously broadcast articles highlighting the « economic fragility” of Japan (“ Japanese GDP records first negative growth in six quarters »).
The official communication was coupled with concrete measures against the Japanese economy. According to the Global Times, a Chinese cruise to Japan will be diverted (in December) to Vietnam. Twelve air routes between Chinese cities and Japan were also canceled from November 24. To support this initiative, many Chinese airlines have allowed passengers to change or cancel their tickets for free, while several travel agencies have suspended the sale of tours to Japan.
The Chinese Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) explained on November 20 that Tokyo “cannot hurt China’s feelings while seeking to benefit from it “. Finally, analytical articles like that of Huanqiu Shibao already mention “massive” cancellations of orders and estimate the potential losses for Japan at several billion dollars, concluding that for the moment there is no ” no possibility of political cooling and economic warming between the two countries ».
If Beijing officially demands that the Japanese Prime Minister withdraw her remarks, the scale and coordination of the Chinese response show that China does not expect a retraction; especially on a point of national security. On the contrary, it uses the incident to fuel a recurring cycle of tensions which aims to construct the narrative of a militarist and revanchist Japan. The objective therefore seems to be to permanently delegitimize Japan’s defensive posture on the Taiwan question, by demonstrating the political and economic costs that such a “provocation” can entail.
Paul Servonnat
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