The world has been watching with concern the evolution of the highly pathogenic bird flu (H5N1) strain, which has been rapidly spreading among birds and poultry since 2020. As we enter 2026, the picture is much darker than five years ago: The virus no longer affects only birds; It threatens hundreds of millions of mammals, from sea lions to dairy cattle to polar seals. Scientists are focused on one question: Are humans next?
Professor Dr. from the University of Glasgow. Ed Hutchinson sums up the gravity of the situation with these words: “This is no longer a disease of wildlife; it has become a global problem and completely out of control.” The course of the virus over the last five years has turned scientific predictions upside down. The mass deaths of sea lions, especially in South America, and the extinction of half of the elephant seal population in Antarctica signal an ecological disaster.
Virologists are stunned
The spread of the virus to dairy cattle in the USA at the beginning of 2024 was the biggest breaking point that stunned virologists. Most of the milk consumed in the United States today contains genetic material belonging to the virus. Although pasteurization destroys the virus, consumption of raw milk and close contact of farm workers with animals maximizes the risk of “interspecies transmission.”
Flu viruses are experts at swapping (reorganizing) parts of their genome. Experts worry that if a person contracts seasonal flu and bird flu at the same time, the virus could create a “hybrid virus” in which it could gain the ability to spread rapidly in humans. According to Hutchinson, the real question is not whether this disaster will happen, but why it still doesn’t happen every day when there are so many variants.
The compensation paid to farmers exceeded billions of dollars
While France achieved a 96% success rate in epidemics with its poultry vaccination program; Giant manufacturers such as the USA are resistant to vaccination due to concerns that their export markets will be damaged. But this resistance comes at a high price: Egg prices have increased by 300% in some regions, and government compensation to farmers has exceeded billions of dollars.
Scientific modeling mathematically reveals the seriousness of the situation. According to a study; When a pandemic strain begins to spread among people, the window of cases we have to contain the virus is only 2 to 10 people. Once this number is exceeded, it will be almost impossible to stop a global spread.
The scientists’ message is clear: There is no permanent human-to-human transmission yet, but the virus continues to mutate and spread. What is needed as we enter 2026 is not panic; greater transparency, a coordinated global monitoring system, and contingency plans, especially in risky regions such as the United States.
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