If Cerom* presents the rapid economic accounts of New Caledonia each year, the exercise did not have the same scope on Tuesday May 6, during the press conference organized for the occasion, since since the riots, “The economic situation has largely deteriorated“, introduces Élise Desmazures, Director of ISEE.
With the figures and elements available, CEROM thus delivers a first growth of growth for 2024. This results in a decrease in GDP between less than 10 % and minus 15 %. “”If we are at least 10 %, this means that we find the GDP of 2017. If we are at least 15 %, it means that we returned to that of 2013Élise Desmazures analysis, Or a return to almost 10 years back in terms of economic performance.“The point on the elements that explain this situation.
GDP is strongly set back in 2024. CEROM infographic
“A huge crisis”
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In early 2024, the situation was already complicated, especially for the three metallurgical factories. KNS in particular. Koniambo Nickel is dormant and will finally stop his activity for lack of buyer at the end of August. A “very striking for Caledonians and the economy“, points to the director of the ISEE. Then, the riots of May 13 occur.”500 companies“There are destroyed, many companies, public establishments, housing, vehicles are heavily degraded, and economic activity and travel almost stopped for several weeks.”A crisis of enormous magnitude.“
The business climate has reached a historically low level. Infographic cerom
Business confidence at the lowest
Consequently, the business climate index (ICA) collapsed at the end of June 2024, to settle at 66.4 (100 being the value below which the morale of entrepreneurs is rather unfavorable). This is “The lowest value ever recorded since we carry out this type of survey in New Caledonia in 1999, but also the lowest of all overseas.“, Indicates Fabrice Dufresne, director of the IEOM. The ICA was very weakly raised in December to 77.9, a figure that remains”slightly below the level reached during COVID“, signe “of an extremely shy recovery“. 54 % of companies still estimate, at the end of 2024, that they would take at least one year to return to a level of pre-crisis activity. And 42 % declare to fear a failure in the next 12 months.
Employment collapse in the private sector
After a year 2023 record in terms of number of employees in the private sector, employment plunges after the riots, going from more than 66,000 employees at the end of 2023 under the 56,000 mark a year later. One in 6 jobs is destroyed, or 11,000. Patents are also strongly affected. About 1,500 individual entrepreneurs cease their activity. If the public sector is less affected, approximately 1,000 jobs are still lost. The establishment of specific devices, total and partial abuse unemployment, played a shock absorber role, but they soon arrived, the last ending on June 30.
Employee employment in the private sector collapsed. 11,000 were destroyed. Infographic cerom
Slow consumption and vulnerable households
“Consumption drops, but does not collapse“, According to Cerom. Building on withdrawals and payments by bank card which, after a strong fall following the riots (62 %), go up, Fabrice Dufresne develops:”We have about 8 % in less payments by bank card compared to 2023, and when we compare the first two months of 2025 compared to those of last year, we are at -12.5 %.“Another indicator of household consumption: the granting of consumer credits, which has known”A fall of almost 40 % in 2024“, Before a rebound in the last quarter of the year.
If consumption fell after the riots, it left, but without finding the level of 2023. Cerom infographic
On the other hand, “Household vulnerability has grown strongly“, Note the director of the IEOM, who lists a”very sensitive increase“The number of credits not reimbursed, the famous” payment incidents “. The number of over -indebtedness files also progresses in a way”notably“. 91 files have already been submitted this year, when the IEOM treated just over 100 in 2024.”It is an indicator of fragility that must not be overlooked.“
Real estate: transactions contract two thirds over the year
The investment is struggling to get up. Business investment credits are in strong decline, and the granting of housing credits almost stopped. Even if the decline of the real estate market was felt at the end of 2022, it reached, in 2024, the lowest level ever recorded (-80 % of less credits compared to 2023). Transactions were contracted 2/3 over the year, with a record drop of -90 % to 3e quarter. And the first figures on 2025 “are not good“, Specifies Élise Desmazures, with -80 % of real estate transactions.
Already in crisis, the real estate market is almost sluggish in 2024. CEROM infographic
The rate of questionable receivables -the credits which are the subject of a defect or an unpaid, both of individuals or of companies -, which had already increased at the time of the COVIR, has experienced strong acceleration since May 2024, reaching almost 8 %, “the highest rate in overseas“Despite everything, specifies Fabrice Dufresne,”It remains relatively contained in view of the magnitude of the crisis“.
Finally, concerning external exchanges, if imports have slowed down, “Exports, especially nickel, have decreased even more markedly“, Relates the director of the ISEE, both in volume and in value.
“The crisis is still ahead of us”
The conclusion drawn by Cerom is hardly favorable. “”Traditional engines such as consumption, investment and export are almost stopped“, Underlines Élise Desmazures. And the support measures which make it possible to limit collapse, such as unemployment, will not last.”Unfortunately, we think that the crisis is still ahead of us.“With, in the background,”the crisis of public finances that New Caledonia has already been going through for several years“. In parallel, mentions the director of the ISEE, the debt of the communities believes. This can have consequences later, with”financing problems“? The message of Cerom partners is clear: the situation will not evolve without prospects, with the”risk of sinking, entering a vicious circle“. “We will not be able to develop the economy, nor to make the territory attractive, as long as there is no visibility. This is the challenge of negotiations that are taking place at the moment to find consensus that allows a rebound in the economy.“
The French Development Agency supports all local communities, so much so that it has 80 % of their debt. As such, it provides regular monitoring of the state of their finances. If, in 2023, the indicators of the municipalities were rather green, with a “favorable trend“, estimates Thomas de Gubernatis, director of AFD, the situation overturned in 2024, with the riots, for all communities.”There was a huge shock from public finances.“
Without own taxation, with a distribution base that melted (from 114 billion in 2023 to 81 billion in 2024) and a sharp drop in the inter -municipal equalization fund, communities had no choice but to limit their expenses as much as possible, explains Thomas de Gubernatis. “”They began by reducing a certain number of social actions, of public services, then they have no longer renewed contracts, did not replace retirements, or even decreased the working time of agents. They really came to the rope.“The AFD has also received mostering requests for reimbursement of loans.”Almost a quarter of our customers obtained it on 2024 and even on 2025.“A situation that questions their ability to maintain public procurement this year and beyond.
CEROM (rapid economic accounts for overseas) is a partnership between the overseas statistics institutes (ISEE in New Caledonia), overseas issues (IEOM) and the French Development Agency (AFD). It aims to pool their means in order to carry out macroeconomic analyzes and gross domestic product estimates (GDP).
