European State of the Climate: Report 2024 (Copernicus Climate Change Service & World Meteorological Organization, 2024); climate.copernicus.eu/esotc/2024
Global Climate Highlights 2024 (Copernicus Climate Change Service, 2024); climate.copernicus.eu/global-climate-highlights-2024
Monthly Global Climate Report: Annual 2024 (NOAA—National Centers for Environmental Information, 2024); www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/202413
Ballester, J. et al. Heat-related mortality in Europe during the summer of 2022. Night. With. 291857–1866 (2023).
Google Scholar
Zhao, Q. et al. Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures from 2000 to 2019: a three-stage modelling study. Lancet Planet. Health 5e415–e425 (2021).
Google Scholar
Gallo, E. et al. Heat-related mortality in Europe during 2023 and the role of adaptation in protecting health. Night. With. 303101–3105 (2024).
Google Scholar
Ballester, J. et al. The effect of temporal data aggregation to assess the impact of changing temperatures in Europe: an epidemiological modelling study. Lancet Reg. Health Eur. 36100779 (2024).
Google Scholar
Basagaña, X. & Ballester, J. Unbiased temperature-related mortality estimates using weekly and monthly health data: a new method for environmental epidemiology and climate impact studies. Lancet Planet. Health 8e766 -e777 (2024).
Google Scholar
Beck, T. M. et al. Mortality burden attributed to anthropogenic warming during Europe’s 2022 record-breaking summer. NPJ Clim. Atmosphere. SCI. 7245 (2024).
Google Scholar
Ebi, K. L. Weekly temperature data are sufficient to estimate exposure-response relationships: a boon for health adaptation in low-resource settings. Lancet Reg. Health Eur. 36100811 (2024).
Google Scholar
Signs of early adaptation to climate change. EARLY-ADAPT www.early-adapt.eu/ (accessed 25 January 2025).
Casanueva, A. et al. Overview of existing heat-health warning systems in Europe. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public. Health 162657 (2019).
Google Scholar
Martinez, G. S., Kendrovski, V., Salazar, M. A., de’Donato, F. & Boeckmann, M. Heat-health action planning in the WHO European Region: status and policy implications. Approximately. Res. 214113709 (2022).
Google Scholar
Robine, J.-M. et al. Death toll exceeded 70,000 in Europe during the summer of 2003. C. R. Biol. 331171–178 (2008).
Google Scholar
McGregor, Gr, Bessmoulin, p., Ebi, K. & Mende, B., Heatwaves and Health: Guidance on Warning-System Development (World Meteorological Organization, 2015).
Karacostas, T., Bais, A. & Nastos, P. (eds). Perspectives on Atmospheric Sciences 191–196 (Springer, 2017).
Kotharkar, R. & Ghosh, A. Progress in extreme heat management and warning systems: a systematic review of heat-health action plans (1995–2020). Sustain. Cities Soc. 76103487 (2022).
Google Scholar
Brimicombe, C. et al. Preventing heat-related deaths: The urgent need for a global early warning system for heat. PLoS Clim. 3e0000437 (2024).
Google Scholar
Ballester, J., Beas-Moix, M., Beltrán-Barrón, N., Méndez Turrubiates, R., Peyrusse, F. & Quijal-Zamorano, M. Forecaster.Health (accessed 27 January 2025); forecaster.health/
Quijal-Zamorano, M. et al. Forecast skill assessment of an operational continental heat-cold-health forecasting system: new avenues for health early warning systems. Sci. Adv. 10ear6286 (2024).
Google Scholar
C3S Seasonal Lookback: Summer 2024 (Copernicus, 2024); climate.copernicus.eu/c3s-seasonal-lookback-summer-2024
Giorgi, F. Climate change hot-spots. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33101029 (2006).
Google Scholar
Van Daalen, K. R. et al. The 2022 Europe report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: towards a climate resilient future. Lancet Public Health 7e942 -e965 (2022).
Google Scholar
Climate Indicators Temperature (Copernicus, 2024); climate.copernicus.eu/climate-indicators/temperature#Note
Masselot, P. et al. Estimating future heat-related and cold-related mortality under climate change, demographic and adaptation scenarios in 854 European cities. Night. With. 311294–1302 (2025).
Google Scholar
Martínez-Solanas, È. et al. Projections of temperature-attributable mortality in Europe: a time series analysis of 147 contiguous regions in 16 countries. Lancet Planet. Health 5e446–e454 (2021).
Google Scholar
Quijal-Zamorano, M. et al. Seasonality reversal of temperature attributable mortality projections due to previously unobserved extreme heat in Europe. Lancet Planet. Health 5e573 -e575 (2021).
Google Scholar
Gasparrini, A. et al. Projections of temperature-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios. Lancet Planet. Health 1E360 -e367 (2017).
Google Scholar
Climate Services for Health: Improving Public Health Decision-Making in a New Climate (World Meteorological Organization/World Health Organization, 2019); library.wmo.int/idurl/4/41941
Meteoalarm (EUMETNET, accessed 27 January 2025); meteoalarm.org/en/live/
Lass, W., Haas, A., Hinkel, J. & Jaeger, C. Avoiding the avoidable: towards a European heat waves risk governance. Int. J. Disaster Risk Sci. 21–14 (2011).
Google Scholar
Predicting the Heat over Western Europe in the Summer of 2022 (ECMWF, 2022); www.ecmwf.int/en/newsletter/173/news/predicting-heat-over-western-europe-summer-2022
Heat and Health in the WHO European Region: Updated Evidence for Effective Prevention (World Health Organization, 2021); iris.who.int/bitstream/handle/10665/339462/9789289055406-eng.pdf?sequence=1
Ballester, J. et al. Long-term projections and acclimatization scenarios of temperature-related mortality in Europe. Nat. Common. 2358 (2011).
Google Scholar
Janoš, T., Ballester, J., Čupr, P. & Achebak, H. Countrywide analysis of heat- and cold-related mortality trends in the Czech Republic: growing inequalities under recent climate warming. Int. J. Epidemiol. 53dyad141 (2024).
Google Scholar
Jones, H. M., Glitz, S., Shumake-Guillemot, J. & West, M. (eds) Developing Climate Information Systems for Heat Health Early Warning: Workshop Report, Action Plan, and Requirements (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 2015); https://doi.org/10.25923/0HFB-G776
Gasparrini, A. et al. Small-area assessment of temperature-related mortality risks in England and Wales: a case time series analysis. Lancet Planet. Health 6E557 -e564 (2022).
Google Scholar
Quijal-Zamorano, M., Martinez-Beneito, M. A., Ballester, J. & Marí-Dell’Olmo, M. Spatial Bayesian distributed lag non-linear models (SB-DLNM) for small-area exposure-lag-response epidemiological modelling. Int. J. Epidemiol. 53dyae061 (2024).
Google Scholar
Weekly Death Statistics (Eurostat, 2024); ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?stable=&title=Weekly_death_statistics
ERA5-land hourly data from 1950 to present. ECMWF cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/dataset/reanalysis-era5-land?tab=overview (2025).
Atmospheric model Ensemble 15-day forecast (set III—ENS). ECMWF www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/datasets/set-iii (accessed 15 January 2025).
GEOSTAT—GISCO (Eurostat, accessed 13 January 2025); ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/gisco/geodata/population-distribution/geostat
Hagedorn, R., Buizza, R., Hamill, T.M., Leutbecher, M. & Palmer, T. N. Comparing TIGGE Multi-Model Forecasts with Reforecast-Calibrated ECMWF Ensemble Forecasts (ECMWF, 2012); https://doi.org/10.21957/9nfamplly
Gasparrini, A., Armstrong, B. & Kenward, M. G. Distributed lag non-linear models. State. With. 292224–2234 (2010).
Google Scholar
Sera, F., Armstrong, B., Blangiardo, M. & Gasparrini, A. An extended mixed-effects framework for meta-analysis. State. With. 385429–5444 (2019).
Google Scholar
Vicedo-Cabrera, A. M. et al. The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change. Nat. Clim. Change 11492–500 (2021).
Google Scholar
Gasparrini, A., Armstrong, B. & Kenward, M. G. Multivariate meta-analysis for non-linear and other multi-parameter associations. State. With. 313821–3839 (2012).
Google Scholar
Gasparrini, A. & Leone, M. Attributable risk from distributed lag models. BMC Med. Res. Methodol. 1455 (2014).
Google Scholar
Population change—demographic balance and crude rates at regional level (NUTS 3) (demo_r_gind3). Eurostat ec.europa.eu/eurostat/cache/metadata/en/demo_r_gind3_esms.htm (accessed 10 January 2025).
Lowe, R. et al. Evaluating the performance of a climate-driven mortality model during heat waves and cold spells in Europe. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public. Health 121279–1294 (2015).
Google Scholar
Lowe, R. et al. Evaluation of an early-warning system for heat wave-related mortality in Europe: implications for sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasting and climate services. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public. Health 13206 (2016).
Google Scholar
R Core Team. R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing (R Foundation for Statistical Computing, 2025).
