Operation Rough Rider: A Costly Endeavor

During “Operation Rough Rider” in Spring 2025, a large-scale military operation involving over 1,100 airstrikes against Huthi positions in Yemen, the United States aimed to pressure the Iranian-backed rebels into submission.The operation involved important resources, including two aircraft carriers and advanced weaponry.

Though, the operation concluded abruptly after just seven weeks, with a ceasefire announced on May 6th. The official narrative belied the true challenges faced by US forces. The operation, estimated to have cost over $2 billion, failed to achieve its initial objectives.

Behind the scenes, the reality was starkly different: seven MQ-9 Reaper drones, each valued at $30 million, were lost.Two F/A-18 Super Hornets were downed,and even an aircraft carrier was compelled to perform extreme maneuvers to evade Huthi missile strikes.

The inability to secure air superiority during the operation was notably concerning for US military planners. This raises questions about the evolving capabilities of rebel forces and the effectiveness of current military strategies.

F-35 Incident Details Emerge

The near-miss involving the F-35 occurred during the height of Operation Rough Rider’s intensive air campaign. This incident, according to sources, was one of several close calls experienced by US aircraft during the initial phase of the operation.

Several American F-16s and an F-35 were almost hit by Huthi’s air defense, which brought the real possibility of American victims. Unnamed US Officials

The F-35: A Stealth Fighter Under Scrutiny

The F-35 Lightning II,developed by Lockheed Martin,represents a significant investment for the US Air Force,with each unit costing over $100 million. Its advanced stealth technology is designed to allow it to penetrate enemy airspace undetected. However, the incident in Yemen suggests that these capabilities may be less effective than previously believed.

The fact that the F-35 was not only detected but also forced to take evasive action raises concerns about the aircraft’s vulnerability to modern air defense systems. This incident could prompt a reevaluation of stealth technology and its role in future military operations.

The incident also highlights the evolving threat landscape, where non-state actors are gaining access to increasingly sophisticated weaponry.This necessitates a reassessment of military strategies and investments to ensure that US forces maintain a technological advantage.

The Houthi Threat: An Evolving Asymmetrical Challenge

The near downing of a U.S. Air Force F-35 fighter jet by Houthi rebels in Yemen has sent ripples through the defense community. The incident, which forced the advanced aircraft to execute emergency maneuvers, highlights the surprisingly resilient nature of the Houthi’s air defense network. This network, while not as sophisticated as those of major global powers, has proven remarkably effective in the region.

Understanding Houthi Air Defenses

Supported by Iranian expertise, the Houthis employ a diverse range of air defense systems, including locally produced and modified variants like the barq-1 and Barq-2 surface-to-air missiles, according to Bulgarian Military analysis. While these systems may lack the complexity of advanced western or Russian counterparts like the S-400, their adaptability and low cost make them potent weapons against high-value targets.

Despite intensive bombing campaigns, the Houthis have fortified their bunkers and weapon depots, relocating arms to more secure locations. As reported by Foreign Affairs, U.S. attacks have forced much of the group underground, disrupting internal communication but failing to eliminate their capabilities.

The US attacks forced most of the group to underground and slowed down internal communication.
Foreign Affairs

Entrenched in the rugged mountainous terrain of Yemen, the Houthis have developed considerable expertise in protecting their command structures and weapon arsenals from airstrikes, as analyzed by a U.S. magazine.

Resilience in the Face of Adversity

The Houthi rebel group has demonstrated remarkable resilience in the face of military losses,adapting to the loss of both fighters and equipment. Despite the weakened position of their primary supporter, Iran, the Houthis have successfully diversified their logistical networks.

Foreign Affairs notes that the rebel group has established new weapons smuggling routes extending beyond Iran to the Horn of Africa. Moreover, the Houthis have cultivated pragmatic relationships with countries like China and Russia, further bolstering their resistance.

The rebel group has established new weapons smuggling routes, which now extends far beyond Iran to the horn of Africa.
Foreign Affairs

Stealth Technology: Cracks in the armor?

The near-miss involving the F-35 raises fundamental questions about the effectiveness of stealth technology, a cornerstone of modern Western air superiority.stealth technology aims to minimize an aircraft’s radar signature, making it tough for enemy radar systems to detect.This is achieved through specialized geometric shapes that deflect radar waves, radar-absorbing materials, and a reduction in infrared signature.

However,this camouflage is not absolute. Modern air defense systems are increasingly employing low-frequency radars in the VHF or UHF bands. These longer wavelengths interact differently with stealth aircraft compared to conventional radars in the X or KU bands, for which the F-35 is optimized.

while these low-frequency systems may offer lower accuracy, they can provide early warning, triggering other targeting systems. Passive sensors, which rely on heat signatures or electromagnetic emissions rather than active radar impulses, further complicate the stealth equation. While an F-35 might potentially be difficult to locate using traditional radar, it is indeed not truly “invisible.”

Detection probability increases during extended operations when the engine heats up significantly or when the aircraft uses communication systems. Multistatic location, where multiple radar stations collaborate to triangulate reflections, also poses a threat.

This technology is being actively developed by countries like Russia and China and may already be in use by Iran and its proxies. In essence, stealth offers protection against outdated air defense systems but is not a reliable defense against modern, networked, or unconventional sensors, particularly in asymmetrical conflicts where improvised systems are combined with surprising effectiveness.

Challenging the Stealth Doctrine

In recent years, Russia and China have invested heavily in developing radar systems specifically designed to detect stealth aircraft. These systems include those operating on lower frequencies and those utilizing passive sensors to identify heat radiation emitted by stealth aircraft.

While the Houthi’s air defense capabilities are relatively primitive compared to these advanced systems, the near-downing of an F-35 and the subsequent withdrawal of the United States from Operation rough Rider have far-reaching implications that extend beyond the Yemen conflict.

The United States’ operation against the Houthis aimed to deter attacks on international shipping lanes in the Red Sea. However,the incident involving the F-35 suggests that the effectiveness of U.S. air power in this region may be more limited than previously assumed.

Implications and Future Considerations

The incident serves as a stark reminder that stealth technology is not a panacea and that modern air defenses are evolving to counter it.The U.S. and its allies must continue to invest in developing new technologies and strategies to maintain air superiority in an increasingly complex and contested surroundings. This includes exploring option approaches to stealth, improving electronic warfare capabilities, and developing more resilient and adaptable air defense systems.

Furthermore,the incident highlights the importance of understanding the capabilities and tactics of potential adversaries,even those with seemingly less sophisticated technology. Asymmetrical warfare, where weaker actors employ unconventional methods to challenge stronger opponents, is becoming increasingly prevalent, and the U.S. military must be prepared to adapt to these new realities.

The Evolving Landscape of Global Conflict

Recent conflicts,particularly in Yemen and ukraine,are prompting a critical reassessment of established military doctrines and the future of warfare. The perceived invincibility of Western military power is being challenged, necessitating a strategic pivot towards adaptability and innovation.

Challenging Western Military Dominance

The conflict in Yemen, for instance, has highlighted the vulnerability of expensive, technologically advanced military systems against adversaries employing relatively low-tech solutions, allegedly supported by Iran. This raises serious questions about the effectiveness of trillion-dollar military apparatuses in asymmetric warfare scenarios.

What could be observed in Yemen is nothing less than the failure of a costly military apparatus worth the value of trillion dollars against rebels with medium technology supported by Iran.

The Illusion of Air Superiority

A cornerstone of NATO strategy, the achievement of air superiority, is increasingly difficult to guarantee against near-peer adversaries like Russia and China. The deterrent effect that once prevented large-scale conflicts, particularly in Europe before the Ukraine war, appears to have diminished.

The core of NATO doctrine-the achievement of air superiority-appears to be increasingly unrealistic against state opponents such as Russia or China. The military deterrent that existed before the Ukraine War no longer seems to be given.

The Future: Decentralization and Unmanned Systems

The future of warfare may lie in the decentralization of military assets and a move away from reliance on costly, manned platforms. Just as the era of the tank is being questioned, we could witness a shift towards diverse, unmanned systems for both air and ground operations. This transition could involve a significant reallocation of resources towards research, progress, and deployment of these next-generation technologies.

The future of warfare could be in the dissolution of such large systems such as the manned combat aircraft, which now costs $ 100 million each. Similar to the possible end of the tank’s era, we could experience a development towards various unmanned platforms.

Such as, the increasing use of drones in reconnaissance and targeted strikes demonstrates the growing importance of unmanned systems. According to a recent report by the Center for strategic and International Studies (CSIS), global military spending on unmanned systems is projected to reach $120 billion by 2030, highlighting the scale of this change.

Adapt or Fall Behind

The armed forces that recognize this evolving reality and proactively adapt their strategies and resource allocation will likely gain a decisive advantage in future conflicts. This requires not only technological innovation but also a fundamental rethinking of military doctrine and training.

The army that recognizes this reality and redirects its resources accordingly will probably dominate upcoming conflicts.

The Resilience of Established Powers

Despite these challenges,it would be premature to underestimate the adaptability of the United States and NATO. The Ukraine war has demonstrated the capacity of modern armies to learn from initial setbacks and rapidly adjust their military doctrines. This capacity for adaptation remains a crucial asset in maintaining a competitive edge.

Still, it would be a mistake to underestimate the adaptability of the USA and NATO. As the ukraine War has shown, modern armies can quickly teach teaching after initial losses and adapt their military doctrines.