War chest or peace dividend was asked here a year ago and the risk of military, hybrid and trade wars was discussed. In the meantime, there was (among other things) the press conference in the Rose Garden, high US tariffs, agreements on slightly lower US tariff rates, which have not been achieved in recent decades, talks on Russia’s war against Ukraine, tensions within NATO, the end of the Gaza war, the US intervention in Venezuela, the escalated military conflict between the US/Israel and Iran that began at the end of February, (unfulfilled) wishes of the US President for a looser one Monetary policy, a designated successor to Jerome Powell from the experts, the end of the ECB interest rate cuts at 2% and last but not least the end of the longest, if not deepest, recession of the Austrian post-war era.
The confusion outlined above only shook the financial markets shortly after the tariff announcement in the Rose Garden, after which the stock markets set new records. The ATX, which had already reached a record high in the total return version in 2024, also exceeded its previous high in the “normal” version and started 2026 on a friendly note.
Several factors contributed to the resilience of the stock markets, in particular:
- The immediate effect of the tariffs was apparently overestimated.
- Investments in and expectations of artificial intelligence boomed
A new chapter has been added to both topics in the last few weeks:
- The Supreme Court ruled that country-specific tariff rates decreed by the US President are illegal.
- While the risk of overinvestment and/or material shortages initially clouded the AI euphoria, in the last week of February a gloomy scenario for its macroeconomic consequences was published, which met with a lot of response on the capital market.
The customs decision could result in relief, but it was immediately answered with the introduction of a general tariff rate of 10% for 150 days in order to find time for alternative solutions. Product-specific tariffs or tariffs designed as a response to trade barriers continue to apply anyway. In addition, uncertainty is now higher again and the trade agreements that were laboriously found in 2025 could be reopened. Compromise may be particularly difficult in the run-up to the US midterm elections. The companies are now examining whether and how they can demand back wrongly paid tariffs from the government. However, 2025 has shown that companies can deal quite well with growing and fluctuating trade barriers. The IMF raised its expectations for global economic growth in both October 2025 and January 2026. The AI dystopias are scenarios that raise awareness of the need for regulation (a core European competency) and (finally) bring classic industrial and dividend stocks back into the spotlight on the stock markets. The ATX can only benefit from this. The escalation in Iran has driven up the price of oil, but over the year as a whole it is likely to decrease again, as is the pressure on share prices. Less relief can be expected from the interest rate side. The segmentation of world trade and the increased security spending – especially by states, but also by companies, for example to defend against cyber attacks – contribute to the fact that inflation has probably come back to stay, so that there is almost no scope for further interest rate cuts in the Eurozone and in the USA, even with a new Fed President, only limited to 50 to 100 basis points.
Quote: Karl Valentin, place and date unknown.
Author:
Dipl.-Vw. Uta Pock, lic.oec.int.
Senior Research Analyst
March 2, 2026
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