In a display of power directed at Caracas, the Government of Donald Trump has intensified its military presence in the Caribbean, off the Venezuelan coast. In recent weeks, more than 60 people have died in attacks by North American forces against alleged drug boats.
How likely is it that this military deployment, supposedly aimed at combating drug cartels, will extend to Mexico? After all, Washington designated several Mexican cartels as terrorist organizations and did not rule out incursions into the neighboring country to combat criminal groups. However, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum rejects this option, insisting on respect for her country’s sovereignty.
Attacks in international waters
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“There is a high risk that the Trump Administration will take military action against Mexican drug cartels. Especially against those that operate unflagged vessels in international waters and openly transport drug shipments, chemical drums or fuel drums,” observes Gary Hale, a non-resident researcher in drug policy and Mexican studies at the Baker Institute at Rice University in Houston.
In statements to DW, the American expert explains that the Mexican coasts are the main destination for this type of drug vessels, which leave from South America or Central America. The drugs are then typically transported by land to the United States.
Mexico-USA military collaboration. USA
Regarding the intervention of maritime routes for the transfer of drugs, security expert David Saucedo highlights the collaboration and coordination between the US Armed Forces and the Mexican Navy: “There is an agreement so that North American ships can be supplied with fuel, drinking water and provisions in Mexican ports,” he tells DW.
Likewise, the Mexican Navy ships would be ready to intervene and intercept any speedboat that escapes Washington’s military forces, maintains the political analyst.
A valuable cooperation
As a result of Trump’s pressure, the Mexican Government would already be acting decisively against the Mexican cartels, based on US intelligence, points out, for his part, drug trafficking expert Nathan Jones, associate professor of security studies at Sam Houston State University.
Also in other areas, such as illegal migration and trade, the Mexican Executive has demonstrated its willingness to collaborate with the United States. Hence, Jones rules out that Washington risks losing that cooperation: “For what? To send a Tomahawk missile to destroy a fentanyl laboratory? It doesn’t make sense,” he comments, in an interview with DW.
Furthermore, the expert recalls that, last August, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum extradited 26 drug traffickers to the United States. “They were not actually extradited, but transferred or expelled, which could mean that there are no legal restrictions on what can be done to them,” he points out.
Nathan Jones even believes it is possible that, behind the scenes, the US authorities are requesting the death penalty for these 26 drug traffickers as a pressure measure to negotiate with them a reduction in the sentence in exchange for information.
In Saucedo’s opinion, another reason why the Pentagon would rule out the use of its military power on Mexican soil is for fear that its Armed Forces will be infiltrated by drug trafficking: “The North American Army is not impervious to corruption,” he notes.
Sheinbaum Security Strategy
And how successful has the Sheinbaum Government’s security strategy been in the fight against organized crime? Official figures reflect a decrease in homicides, with an average of 59.5 cases per day in September 2025, compared to 86.9 in the same month of 2024.
However, the recent assassination of the municipal president of Uruapan, Carlos Manzo, just two weeks after the murder of Bernardo Braco, leader of the lemon trees of the state of Michoacán, questions the effectiveness of Sheinbaum’s strategy, based on intelligence, investigation and attention to social causes.
For security expert David Saucedo, the most important criterion to evaluate Sheinbaum’s performance is not the opinion of Mexicans, but that of the US Government. “Washington has a very negative opinion of what is done in Mexico in terms of combating drug trafficking,” he maintains, adding that “strategic and long-term decisions for Mexico are made in the White House.”
In the opinion of Gary Hale, who directed DEA operations in Latin America, “the murder of Carlos Manzo is the latest failure of the non-confrontational approach” of the Mexican government against the cartels. “Sheinbaum still has time in his presidential term to change the course of his policies,” he observes.
Finally, the expert summarizes: “With American warships operating off the coasts of the Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico, Trump could force Sheinbaum to redesign his anti-drug strategies, giving him the opportunity to adjust and align with American thinking, or continue facing trade sanctions such as costly tariffs and possible military attacks on his own territory.”
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