Venezuela, currently in the midst of a crisis with the United States, is closing an economically complex year 2025 with an increase in the official dollar rate of 479% over the last 12 months, while the gap with the black market continues to widen, to approach 100% in a largely dollarized economy.
Although President Nicolas Maduro projects economic growth close to 9% in 2025 (figures disputed by some experts), the country has experienced a deterioration compared to the economic performance of the last five-year term.
President Donald Trump has imposed more sanctions against the Venezuelan government and ordered the seizure of ships carrying Venezuelan oil, which could negatively impact the economy.
In this context, the year ends with marked inflation, high dollar prices, a shortage of cash currencies and a growing use of cryptocurrencies in a largely dollarized economy and where most prices are displayed in dollars.
The Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) this Wednesday set the dollar at 301.37 bolivars (Venezuelan currency), price in effect until January 2, which confirms an increase of 479.25% compared to the 52.02 bolivars displayed by the issuing entity at the beginning of 2025.
At the same time, the gap with the parallel market is widening. The black price, determined by cryptocurrency exchange platforms, is around 560 bolivars, a difference of at least 85% compared to the official rate.
According to economists, 80% of the Venezuelan foreign exchange market is focused on these platforms. This increase has led to galloping inflation which could exceed 500% in 2025, according to the assessment of private firms, in the absence of official figures, not published by the BCV since October 2024.
Economists also calculate a change in dollar prices of 32% this year. These figures revive fears of a return to the hyperinflation experienced between 2017 and early 2022.
The economic crisis with shortages had notably resulted in a wave of massive emigration.
However, the situation improved with the dollarization of the economy. Despite these unfavorable indicators, the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (Cepal) estimates economic growth at 6.5%, and Nicolas Maduro projects 9%, in particular thanks to an increase in oil production which is around one million barrels per day.
Venezuela has been under a US oil embargo since 2019 and exports much of its oil under the table at discounts.
In early December, President Donald Trump further tightened the embargo by ordering a ban on the transit of sanctioned ships to and from the country.
Experts predict harmful consequences for the economy if the measure continues.
