The Vatican in Sede Vacante: A Moment of Opportunity?

Following the passing of Pope Francis, the Vatican finds itself in a state of sede vacante, a period of papal vacancy. This interregnum, characterized by the absence of a reigning pontiff, presents a unique, and potentially vulnerable, moment on the global stage.With no single figurehead to definitively represent the Holy See,external actors may seek to exert influence,pursuing their own agendas within the vacuum.

France’s Diplomatic Maneuvering: A Push for a French Pontiff?

France has emerged as a key player during this period, actively engaging in what some perceive as a campaign to promote a French cardinal to the papacy.Highlighting this effort, the French Foreign Minister publicly lauded Jean-Marc Aveline, president of the French Episcopal conference, as an ideal candidate for interreligious dialogue. Later, president Emmanuel Macron’s visit to Rome for Pope Francis’s funeral included meetings with French cardinals, further fueling speculation.

While France holds five voting cardinals in the upcoming conclave, a relatively small number, Macron’s engagement has stirred considerable debate, especially within the Italian press, which traditionally favors an Italian pontiff. The dynamics of papal elections are complex, and even seemingly minor interactions can significantly impact the outcome.

China’s Unilateral Actions: challenging Vatican Authority

Simultaneously, the Chinese government has taken actions that appear to challenge the vatican’s authority. Beijing has unilaterally appointed two new bishops, seemingly disregarding the existing agreement between China and the Holy See.

The 2018 agreement between China and the Vatican established a process for the joint approval of ecclesiastical appointments in China. However, the recent appointments of the auxiliary bishop of Shanghai and the Bishop of Xinxiang were reportedly made without Vatican approval. This move raises serious questions about the future of the agreement and the extent to which China is willing to cooperate with the Holy See on religious matters.

The appointment of the Bishop of Xinxiang is particularly sensitive, as the bishop previously appointed by John Paul II remains under arrest. the newly appointed bishop is known for his alignment with Beijing’s policies, including the enforcement of restrictions on religious practices.

Religious Restrictions in China: A Broader Context

China’s actions must be viewed within the context of increasingly stringent regulations on religious activities. Prior to Pope francis’s death,the Chinese government had already intensified measures against religious groups,limiting collective activities and imposing restrictions on religious education and publications. These measures, which primarily target Chinese citizens, underscore the challenges faced by religious communities in China.

According to a 2024 report by the U.S. commission on International Religious Freedom, religious freedom conditions in China continue to deteriorate, with the government employing sophisticated surveillance technologies and repressive legal frameworks to control religious expression.

Implications for the Future

The actions of both france and China during this period of sede vacante highlight the complex geopolitical considerations that surround the papacy. The election of the next pope will not onyl shape the future of the Catholic Church but also have significant implications for international relations and global power dynamics. The conclave, scheduled to begin on Wednesday, will be closely watched by observers around the world.