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2. Francis Alÿs: Ricochets
3. Do Ho Suh: Tracing Time
4. When Forms Come Alive
5. The Time Is Always Now
6. Paris 1924: Sport, Art and the Body
7. Drawing the Renaissance
8. Artemisia in Birmingham
9. Entangled Pasts
10. Acts of Creation: On Art and Motherhood

President-elect Donald Trump is set to overturn a ban on some US exports of liquefied natural gas, or LNG, in a boon for US energy producers.

p>But the move is unlikely to help address the climate crisis and may even make it worse. As for the biggest buyer of American LNG — Europe — which depends heavily on natural gas imports, it will have to wait till after the end of the decade to see the benefit.

The region would welcome extra flows from January as, after nearly three bruising years of high energy prices, it is on the brink of losing one of its last remaining sources of Russian pipeline gas.

p>“The global gas market remains on edge heading into winter, unassuaged by warm winter weather predictions,” Bank of America strategists wrote in a note this month. “The market remains vulnerable due to relatively low inventories in Europe, the historical inaccuracy of weather forecasts, uncertainty around gas supplies from Russia and the startup timelines for new LNG projects.”

LNG is a chilled, liquid form of natural gas that can be transported via sea tankers — and American exports are booming. In less than a decade, the United States has gone from selling negligible amounts of the fuel abroad to leapfrogging Australia and Qatar to become the world’s top supplier, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Yet, in January, the Biden administration paused federal authorizations for several pending LNG export projects while it assessed the impact of the export boom on the environment and on energy security and prices at home. The pause does not apply to exports that had already been approved.

On Tuesday, the Department of Energy published that assessment, forecasting that, if the US increases LNG exports beyond what’s currently authorized, the resulting emissions would amount to an additional 1.5 gigatons of planet-warming pollution or so per year by 2050, equivalent to a quarter of current US annual greenhouse gas emissions.

Trump’s allies are already making plans to lift the LNG moratorium after he takes office in January, according to a source familiar with discussions among the incoming president’s advisers as well as candidates under consideration for national security roles.

Here is what this means for America’s biggest customer.

Before Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russia was the European Union’s biggest supplier of natural gas. Since then, the bloc whittled Moscow’s share of its imports down to 15% in 2023 from 45% in 2021 by slashing the supply arriving via pipeline.

To fill the gap, Europe has imported vast quantities of LNG from the US and other countries, as well as pipeline gas from Norway. Now, according to the EIA — which counts the United Kingdom and Turkey as part of Europe — the region is the biggest recipient of US LNG exports, soaking up two-thirds of the shipments last year.

The EU has also ramped up imports of Russian LNG to help heat its homes and power its factories. But the bloc faces a self-imposed deadline of 2027 to break its dependence on all fossil fuel imports from Moscow, setting the US up to play an even bigger role as the region’s energy supplier.

That independence day is still far off, however. Well before then, on January 1, 2025, a contract enabling the transit of Russian pipeline gas through Ukraine is set to expire. The flows represent about 5% of the EU’s total gas imports, according to Brussels-based think tank Bruegel, and supply mainly Austria, Hungary and Slovakia.

These countries are not at risk of an energy shortage, say analysts, noting they would likely fill the gap by importing more LNG or more natural gas via pipeline from other European nations.

But the loss of the flows via Ukraine will make it harder for Europe to refill its stores before next winter, said Massimo Di Odoardo, a senior natural gas researcher at energy data firm Wood Mackenzie.

The picture should brighten for Europe in the second half of the decade, when a wave of fresh LNG supply from the US, Qatar and other producers is expected to hit the global market.

By the end of the decade, the amount of LNG trading in the world market is likely to be 50% higher than currently, excluding the potential supply from the currently pending US projects, according to Di Odoardo.

Any additional flows due to the reversal of Biden’s ban would not enter the market until after 2030, analysts said.

When they do, they will contribute to broader downward pressure on European natural gas prices.

In a note earlier this month, analysts at Capital Economics said their central forecast is for European prices to roughly halve from current levels by the end of 2026.

Even so