Between a Trump administration that is circumventing court rulings to impose a global tariff of 15% and private credit markets that are beginning to crack, macroeconomic stability in 2026 is under severe test. If Europe displays unexpected resilience, Japan plunges back into its deflationary doubts, creating a fragmented financial geopolitics.
The past week has illustrated a fundamental truth of modern political economy: the rule of law attempts to curb the protectionist impulse, but politics often ends up finding a back door. The Supreme Court’s 6-3 decision invalidating IEEPA-based tariffs could have been a breathing room for global trade. Instead, it triggered an immediate bidding war from the US administration, bringing the overall tariff to 15%.
USA: Tax “Shock and Awe”
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The Trump administration is not backing down. By pivoting towards new authorities to impose this 15% tariff, it confirms that protectionism is no longer a negotiating lever, but a dogma. The risk is now twofold: prolonged legal uncertainty for companies – faced with the nightmare of reimbursements – and persistent inflationary pressure. With a Core PCE at 3.0% and slowed growth 1,4%the Fed is trapped in a “two-sided approach”: lowering rates to support activity or maintaining them to counter imported inflation.
Europe & UK: The Unexpected Upturn
While Washington struggles with its contradictions, the Old Continent displays surprising vigor. PMIs beat expectations, suggesting Europe has already priced in some of the trade shock. In the United Kingdom, the record budget surplus offers a breath of fresh air to Westminster, although youth unemployment (14%) remains a social time bomb. Europe stands out, for the moment, as the relative refuge of stable growth.
Asia: Japan faces the Deflationary Mirror
The contrast is striking: while the West is fighting sticky inflation, Japan is seeing its own fall back to 1,5%. For Governor Ueda (BoJ), this signal complicates monetary normalization, at the very time when China (PBoC) is choosing the status quo to stabilize its internal economy. Asia remains in “wait and see” mode, scrutinizing the side effects of US tariffs on its export chains.
Markets: The “Blue Owl” Signal and Shadow Banking
The episode Blue Owl in private credit is the major point of vigilance. Restricted withdrawals are a classic symptom of excess liquidity evaporating in the face of persistently high rates. If we are not yet in a 2007-type systemic scenario, it is a stark reminder that “Shadow Banking” is the first to suffer when macroeconomic clarity is lacking.
(source : column by Mohamed El-Erianexpert in finance and economics, dated February 22, 2026)
IN BRIEF
- SCOTUS vs Trump : Invalidation of IEEPA tariffs ($130-160 billion), but immediate response with an overall tariff raised to 15%.
- Stagflation US ? : Disappointing growth (1.4%) coupled with firmer than expected Core PCE inflation (3.0%).
- European Resilience: PMIs and retail sales above expectations; record budget surplus in the United Kingdom.
- Japan: Inflation has fallen back below 2% (to 1.5%), curbing the BoJ’s desire to increase rates.
- Credit Alert: Shakes at Blue Owl (Private Equity/Credit); markets are monitoring possible contagion.