The current price of gold against the US dollar: $5087
- The war in the Middle East is intensifying, reviving demand for the US dollar.
- Data on US employment indicates resilience in the sector.
- XAU/USD resumes its decline, and may challenge the weekly low at $4,977.
The spot gold price resumed its decline on Thursday, accelerating lower during US trading hours. The XAU/USD pair traded as low as $5,054, with a slight bounce from that level as rising tensions in the Middle East revived demand for the US dollar (USD).
Two main factors supported the US dollar: On the one hand, crude oil prices rose to their highest levels in one year amid headlines indicating outages in the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on ships in the region. On the other hand, employment figures in the United States indicated that the labor market remains flexible.
The Challenger job cuts report showed that U.S. employers announced 48,307 job cuts in February, down 55% from 108,435 cuts in January. Also, initial jobless claims for the week ending February 28 rose by 213K, matching the previous reading but lower than the 215K expected. Finally, non-farm labor productivity in the fourth quarter of 2025 rose by 2.8%, further deteriorating the previous reading of 5.2%. Labor cost per unit in the same period increased by 2.8% compared to -1.8% recorded in the third quarter.
The United States will publish the non-farm payrolls (NFP) report for February on Friday, and it is expected to show that the country added 59,000 new jobs in the month. In the same period, the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.3%, unchanged from January. The country will also publish retail sales data for January, which is delayed due to the partial government shutdown since last February.
Short-term technical forecast for XAU/USD
Technical analysis:
In the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD is trading with a slight bearish bias, with the price extending below the 20-period SMA near $5,190 and struggling to regain ground above the 100-period SMA around $5,107, while remaining above the bullish 200-period SMA near $5,051. The short-term average has now reversed and is pointing lower, indicating that bullish pressure has faded after the recent surge towards $5,400. At the same time, the Momentum indicator has moved into negative territory but is moving north, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is aiming lower in the 40 area, both enhancing the possibility of a slippage.
Immediate resistance is seen at the 100-period SMA at $5,107, followed by the 20-period SMA near $5,190, with a break above this area opening the way towards a recent congestion around $5,260 and then the $5,320 area. On the downside, initial support comes at the 200 period simple moving average, clustered near $5,051, followed by the weekly low at $4,997.
In the daily chart, the XAU/USD pair maintains a moderately bullish stance as the price remains above the bullish 20-day SMA near $5,085, while it is far from the 100- and 200-day SMAs, which are strongly trending higher and confirming the prevailing fundamental uptrend. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) cools to the low 50s from overbought levels, suggesting that momentum has returned to normal without breaking the broader bullish structure, while the Momentum indicator is heading lower above its midline, not enough to confirm a sharper pullback.
(The technical analysis for this story was written with the help of an artificial intelligence tool.)
