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Your guide to what the 2024 US election means for Washington and the world
The writer is editorial director and a columnist at Le Monde
Historian Timothy Snyder’s Urgent Message to Europe
At the Sorbonne University in Paris, historian Timothy Snyder delivered a powerful message to European leaders. He stated that if a ceasefire agreement is reached in Ukraine, Europe must give “everything you have” to the country—this includes EU membership, troops, and significant investments. Failing to do so, Snyder warned, will leave Europe perpetually in the shadow of war. Snyder emphasized, “This is the hour of Europe, because the US will do nothing.”
Europe’s Shift in Conversation
The discourse around Russia’s war in Ukraine has drastically shifted in Europe. The return of Donald Trump to the presidency and Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s desire for a negotiated settlement have introduced much volatility to the situation. The mantra of supporting Ukraine “as long as it takes” has lost credibility with the US president opting out of the alliance. Trump’s willingness to end the war without consultation from Europeans poses a significant challenge to European leaders.
Macron’s Early Victory
Emmanuel Macron achieved an early success when he facilitated a meeting between Zelenskyy and Trump at the reopened Notre-Dame Cathedral. This interaction appears to have dissuaded Trump from seeking a swift resolution, with the expectation that solving such complex conflicts requires more time. European officials are somewhat reassured, noting that Trump has yet to outline a clear strategy. Meanwhile, Putin remains unconvinced of defeat and continues to pursue his objectives.
American Disengagement and Its Impact
While there’s no need for Europe to leave NATO, Trump’s reluctance to be involved in the Ukrainian conflict signifies a shift in American policy. Europe must now consider how to secure a seat at the negotiating table without the US support. Strong security guarantees for Ukraine are crucial because any deal that fails to prevent further Russian aggression will not serve European interests. This challenge forces countries that have long relied on the US for security to rethink their strategies.
The Debate Over Security Guarantees
A “dynamic debate” is underway about what concrete security measures Europe can offer to maintain Ukraine’s stability. Countries like Poland, the Baltics, Sweden, and Finland are at the forefront of this discussion, actively seeking ways to bolster their defenses. France, traditionally the central player in European affairs, is attempting to gather support by uniting various factions rather than pushing its own agenda.
Appealing for Increased Defense Spending
New alliances, perhaps outside the EU framework, are being considered to enhance security measures. An example includes expanding the “Weimar triangle” by incorporating Italy and the UK. Recent history shows Macron’s attempt to deploy troops in Ukraine faced significant backlash. With domestic issues affecting his influence, he needs to regain his partners’ trust. France, however, has less urgency due to its nuclear deterrent, which it considers a safeguard against Russian threats.
The European Parliament’s Urgent Call
Mark Rutte, NATO Secretary-General, addressed members of the European Parliament, warning that unless EU states increase their defense spending, they will likely face the grim choice of learning Russian or relocating to New Zealand. Europeans, caught between Putin and Trump, are now confronting the reality they had long sought to avoid—enhancing their own defense capabilities.
Conclusion
The 2024 US election introduces an uncertain yet pivotal moment for European security and diplomacy. The fall of Ukrainian support from the US, a strategic ally for decades, demands new strategies from Europe. The coming years may see a fundamental shift in how European countries approach defense, alliances, and conflict resolution. As these dynamics evolve, the actions taken by leaders now will define the geopolitical landscape of the continent.
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