Photo by Shutterstock/Russian soldiers
News that a Russian summer offensive is a very real threat is emerging, but opinions differ on the likelihood of such a scenario. Unian asked an artificial intelligence (AI) what prediction it could make for Ukraine’s immediate future, and the answer it received made me think.
Will 2026 a new Russian offensive will begin in the summer?
ChatGPT, based on the GPT-5 model, believes that Russia is preparing an attack, and this is no joke. In his assessment, Russia is increasing its military presence – this is evidenced by the large concentration of equipment and regular drone and missile strikes on Ukrainian cities. Also, artificial intelligence relies on some analysts confirming the readiness of the Russian leadership to launch offensive actions in the east and south of Ukraine in 2026. spring-summer.
DI predicts that once the offensive begins, there is a high probability that the Donetsk region will be hit, as it is where the main transport hubs are located, although active fighting in the region has been going on for several years. According to ChatGPT, the main targets are Kostiantynivka, Kramatorsk and Slovyansk – if these cities fall, Russia could declare full control of the Donetsk region.
The intelligence agency also assesses the probability of an attack in the Zaporizhia area as high, especially paying attention to the Huliaipole district and the movement of Russian troops towards Zaporizhia. The virtual assistant writes that the decisive factor will be whether the Russian army will be able to cross the river and break through the defense line.
Interestingly, neither Kharkiv nor Sumy are considered by ChatGPT to be the main targets of Russia’s offensive campaign, but they do not rule out the possibility that operations in these directions may be auxiliary to dispersing Ukrainian forces along the front line.
The operation itself, according to the artificial intelligence, will not be similar to what happened in 2022. This time, massive rocket and drone attacks, active enemy artillery work and the use of small assault groups are expected. DI predicts that there will be no quick breakout, but a positional war with a slow but sure advance is likely.
In addition, ChatGPT identifies factors that could derail Russia’s 2026 bid. spring-summer attack:
- large losses in the personal composition of the Russian army;
- crushing blows of Ukrainian forces to the rear (factories, oil bases, companies);
- active supply of Western armaments.
In general, the probability of Russian offensive actions by AI in 2026 sees the spring-summer as a big one, but stresses that it will likely be a series of local heavy battles without a strategic breakthrough. ChatGPT also added that Russia’s actions are not aimed at seizing new territories, but at bringing Ukraine to the negotiating table.
Photo by Shutterstock/Russian soldier
Artificial intelligence “Claude” also answered the question of when the Russian attack on Ukraine will begin and who should be at least morally inclined. Interestingly, this neural network disagrees with its “colleague” – unlike ChatGPT, Claude believes that a large-scale attack than 2026. there will be neither spring nor summer.
The first argument was Russia’s exhaustion – DI writes that Russia “simply would not carry out” such a large military campaign as was taking place in 2022. February or 2023 in the summer However, the virtual assistant does not exclude the possibility of missile and drone attacks and the slow advance of Russian forces along the front line. The second reason why “Claude” believes that the summer offensive will not take place is the lack of benefits for V. Putin: any active combat actions would only strengthen Western support for Ukraine, and the negotiations would be ruined.
In addition, the virtual assistant emphasizes that Russia is currently facing a serious lack of strategic reserves, and a large-scale attack requires the concentration of troops, the superiority of manpower and equipment, weapons and fuel reserves. According to DI, Russia doesn’t have all that. In addition, a major offensive is a risk: if a breakthrough fails, the Russian army would suffer enormous losses, which would affect the morale of both the soldiers on the front line and the citizens in the rear. With Ukraine on the defensive, Claude believes Russia will prefer a slow, methodical advance to gradually wear down Ukrainian forces.
Artificial intelligence says that a large-scale Russian summer offensive is unlikely, but drone and missile attacks are entirely possible, especially against cities and energy facilities in the Kharkiv and Donetsk regions. “Claude” is convinced that V. Putin will demand the demilitarization of Ukraine, refusal of NATO membership and recognition of the occupied territories. In this way, he aims to get the maximum benefit in negotiations with minimum costs and losses on the front. The only condition under which Claude sees a high probability of an attack is the termination of negotiations by the Ukrainian side and the end of Western arms supplies. Then, DI writes, the Russian president could take advantage of the situation and try to turn it in his favor.
