Ukraine-US Mineral Deal: Tensions Rise Amidst Ongoing War

The ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia continues to be at the forefront of global geopolitical tensions. Recent developments in discussions between Ukraine and the United States over a potential mineral deal have brought new challenges to the already volatile situation.

On Friday, Mike Waltz, a security advisor to the US government, suggested a rapid signing of a prospective agreement involving Ukrainian minerals. This followed a similar statement by President Donald Trump. However, these announcements were promptly dismissed by Mykhailo Podolyak, a close advisor to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Podolyak emphasized that any agreement must come with security guarantees for Ukraine. This aligns with Zelensky’s previous rejection of a similar offer due to insufficient safeguards.

Podolyak cited that Ukraine seeks assurances for its security within the agreement framework, underscored by previous dealings that lacked such guarantees. This stance indicates a cautious approach from Kyiv, wary of potential exploitation.

Following the initial statements, Podolyak expressed doubts about the rapide progress of the negotiations. He insisted on clarifying terms and outlined that Krav from both parties are still being discussed.

The First Proposal

The Ukrainian government received an initial draft proposal from the US, approximately two weeks prior. The document included stringent conditions from Washington, aiming to secure control over Ukrainian resources.

• An American investment fund would gain precedence in acquiring all exported minerals, including oil and gas.
• There would be a 50% share in mineral revenue income and licenses for other investors.
• The US would monopolize methods and terms for exploiting Ukrainian natural resources.
• The deal specified perpetual duration and would be subject to New York law and courts. Arbitrations would transpire in the United States.

This draft, dated February 7th, highlighted the ambitious nature of the American terms, emphasizing control and financial leverage.

Trump’s Turbulent Turn

Recent political developments under President Donald Trump have significantly impacted global geopolitics, particularly affecting Ukraine’s diplomatic landscape.

During the Munich Security Conference, held nearly a week ago, world leaders felt the impact of Trump’s rhetoric, raising concerns within Ukraine. USA’s Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and US Special Envoy to Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, made statements that further complicated the geopolitical situation: