Expert is announcing a decline of $ 510 billion annually in container imports to the United States.
Industry analyst John McCown believes a 25 percent reduction in American container imports is “fully possible”. This is because of Trump’s trade war. That’s what Bloomberg writes that reproduces the report.
Such a decline would mean a decline of $ 510 billion in annual trade for the United States, according to the expert.
This amounts to NOK 5,179 billion – around a quarter of the value of the oil fund.
The decline could be one of the strongest in the 60 -year history of the Containershipping, reports Bloomberg.
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– are due to the tariff rates
Weaker demand is already reflected in prices for container transport from China to the west coast of the United States.
US ports are now experiencing a dramatic fall in the number of import containers.
Recent figures show that the container volume fell by as much as 7.9 per cent in June compared to the same month last year. This comes after a fall of 6.6 percent in May, McCown writes in the report published Sunday.
“The decline in 2025 will be due to the tariff rates, and unfortunately there is nothing to indicate that this will be short -lived,” McCown writes.
Kelly Chen in DNB Carnegie points out that this may indicate that new orders are weakened, while the companies gradually emptying the stocks they previously built up.
– The US has good key figures, but when you look at key figures for inventory in retail and production, it has not had a huge structure. I’m a bit about it. If storage has been built up, then it will not be reflected, she says.
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June-hop
The report to McCown, which is based on figures from the US’s ten largest ports, shows that the decline in May and June more than blurred the almost 10 percent increase in April, when many importers hoarded goods before tariff rates came into force.
– importers cannot inferteinferteThis means sending goods before any tariff rates are introduced. Forever, no matter what happens to the tariffs, Emily Stausboll, senior analyst in the shipping technology company Xeneta wrote in an update last week.
The front loading was reflected in the harbor in Los Angeles earlier this summer. There they experienced their busiest June month ever.
The reason is that importers tried to get their goods into the United States before President Trump potentially increases customs duties on Chinese goods from 45 to 145 percent after August 12.
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– depends on the demand
Macro economist at the trade bank Karine Alson Nelson points out that she has not read the report itself from McCown and only Bloomberg’s reproduction of it, but says “it will be serious” if the estimates strike. Nevertheless, a decline in container imports is expected.
– If you look at the estimates for GDP in the second quarter, imports are also expected to fall. This is due to the front loading earlier.
It may be reversed in the second half of the year, she believes.
– It depends on demand. You see how long the bearings last, when you have to fill up and at what price.
