Trump’s Venezuela coup could have greater consequences, warns expert Alexander Görlach: China may be rubbing its hands. An analysis.
China’s government has spoken out unusually clearly (and repeatedly) and denounced Washington’s actions against Venezuela. On Saturday, the day of the military action and the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife Cilia, a government spokesman castigated the move as imperialist and a clear breach of international law. On Monday, Beijing called for the couple’s immediate release.
China is a close partner of Venezuela. On the day of Washington’s attack, a Beijing delegation was in Caracas for consultations. Ultimately, this close relationship has now become Caracas’ downfall. By occupying Venezuela, Donald Trump wants to send a signal to South America: Your countries are in the USA’s zone of influence. The states in the region should no longer cooperate with China and Russia.
Trump’s Venezuela strike could develop into an emergency
The confrontation over Venezuela could develop into an emergency between the USA and China, not only in Latin America, but especially in Asia. Because if Washington dares to mark its zone of influence, then Beijing is likely to do the same. In fact, China’s leader Xi Jinping‘s tongue-lashing has been no different than Donald Trump’s in the past. It is a declared goal of Chinese policy to drive out the USA as hegemon. Asia for Asians is the slogan with which Xi wants to make a change of hegemonic power from America to China palatable to the neighboring states in the region.
People in Taiwan in particular will be concerned about this development. The democratic island country, which Xi Jinping has threatened with annexation and military occupation if it does not comply, has become a site for Chinese demonstrations of power in recent years. China’s navy has blocked the island and its ports, showing that it can cut off the island from the outside world. The island only has energy reserves for two weeks. After that, everything would go dark on Taiwan – and the semiconductor industry, which makes up Taiwan’s economic power, would come to a standstill. With fatal consequences for the entire global economy.
Beijing’s air force has been flying over the island for a long time, and a maneuver like the last one is not new. There are even official animations circulating online that simulate the hail of bombs hitting Taiwan’s cities. The danger of war is real, even if Xi Jinping always emphasizes that he will only intervene militarily if the Taiwanese cannot be “reunified” with the motherland. The US Congress just approved the sale of arms worth $11 billion to Taiwan. This is not the look of a country that will raise the white flag without a fight.
After the events in Caracas, the Chinese leadership’s considerations are now likely to once again revolve around the question of whether China would be internationally isolated if it actually attacked the democratic island state. Because as the world watched the events in Venezuela with shock and amazement, it became clear once again that there is no country or institution in the world that can contain the United States. If America decides to pursue its interests militarily, international law will lose out. China, which in many ways is striving for what it sees as the exceptional status of the United States of America, will take note of this and, if necessary, use it as a card against Taiwan – even though Taiwan, whose full name is the Republic of China, is not internationally recognized as a state in the same way as Venezuela.
China’s new bill thanks to Trump? Zones of influence, borders – and Taiwan in focus
Beijing insists on releasing Maduro and his wife because they are the president of a sovereign state who enjoys immunity. However, as part of the tightened so-called security laws, the nomenklatura under Xi has created the legal basis for arresting Taiwan’s president and government and bringing them to trial in the People’s Republic as rebels and separatists. China claims jurisdiction beyond its borders. According to this logic, by considering Taiwan a part of China, the Taiwanese also fall under Beijing’s jurisdiction.
It is part of the full picture to emphasize that China, unlike the USA, has so far stuck to communiques, threats and maneuvers. Ideologically, however, Trump and Xi are children of the same spirit. Not least for this reason, one or the other in Beijing may now be expecting to renegotiate the zones of influence in a big deal, draw imaginary borders and, in the process, remove Taiwan from Washington’s orbit.
Whether Xi Jinping actually ultimately goes to war against Taiwan, and thus possibly also the USA, still depends solely on the question of whether he believes he can win a war. China’s rulers do not want to suffer a debacle à la Putin in Ukraine. So far, Beijing has been cautious and wait-and-see. But the more Donald Trump involves the USA and its military in more and more wars and confrontations, contrary to his campaign promises, and thus loses focus on Asia, Xi Jinping could expect success and launch an attack on Taiwan. (Alexander Görlach)
