CNN Español
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Many of us in Mexico are asking ourselves a question today that generates heated debates: will Trump order attacks against drug cartels in Mexican territory? The question is no longer a speculation if we take into account the constant direct mentions of the president of the United States, Donald Trump, on the subject. The most recent statement was in an interview given to four journalists from the New York Times on January 7, five days after the operation in Caracas, in which US special forces captured the acting president of Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro.
The operation in Venezuela marks a turning point: it implies a change of course for the United States in Latin America and a breaking of the written and unwritten rules on diplomacy and international politics. It is a turn that the Trump administration was building along the way, first with the designation of the cartels as foreign terrorist organizations, then, by considering fentanyl as a weapon of mass destruction, according to the decree he signed on December 15 and, in parallel with the attacks on vessels supposedly loaded with drugs since September of last year.
On at least twelve occasions Trump has mentioned a possible armed intervention in Mexico against the cartels, by my own count, although there may be more. And so far Mexico’s response has been the same (almost the same number of times): President Claudia Sheinbaum has said that a United States intervention in her country is not going to happen, because both administrations dialogue and collaborate to confront organized crime, but that sovereignty is above any negotiation.
Indeed, both governments have shown collaboration and results and have boasted historic seizures of drugs, weapons, chemical precursors, the destruction of laboratories for the manufacture of methamphetamines and fentanyl, in addition to strong blows to the criminal structures that operate on both sides of the border.
Additionally, the Sheinbaum government, in unprecedented acts, handed over dozens of prisoners linked to drug trafficking, required by the US authorities, without going through (the long) legal extradition processes, a decision that has generated a debate in Mexico about possible violations of the constitutional framework.
In 2025, the Mexican government handed over a total of 55 prisoners and in two operations fast track. The most notable delivery was that of Rafael Caro Quintero, former leader of the Guadalajara cartel and accused in the United States of the murder of the DEA agent, Enrique Camarena Salazar, in 1985. His transfer to the United States was a cause for joy among the agents of the anti-narcotics department and relatives of the late agent, who waited 40 long years for the moment.
Today it is clear that the collaboration so far seems to be insufficient for Donald Trump and he has openly expressed it. He even argues that Mexico is largely governed by these criminal organizations affiliated with the ruling party and that President Sheinbaum is afraid to confront them, rejecting the help that the president himself has offered.
The Mexican president has also come out against these accusations and says that they come from the local opposition, which since its electoral campaign in 2024, created a narrative on social networks that tried to link it to organized crime under the hashtag #NarcoPresidenta.
The problem for President Sehinbaum is that today there are indications that some members of the Fourth Transformation movement that governs Mexico through the ruling Morena party have links with criminal organizations.
For many analysts, the revocation of visas for some high-profile Mexican politicians, members of Morena, by the State Department is an unequivocal sign that there is sensitive information in this regard.
To go no further, in the executive order signed by Trump a year ago, it is literally established that criminal organizations maintain intolerable relations with the government of Mexico: “Mexican drug trafficking organizations (DTOs) have an intolerable alliance with the government of Mexico. This alliance endangers the national security of the United States, and we must eradicate the influence of these dangerous cartels from the bilateral environment.”
Trump’s most recent threat regarding possible armed action against the cartels in Mexican territory led to a phone call with President Sheinbaum, with which, apparently, the specter of unilateral action by the Trump administration was dispelled for the moment. The compromise would have been more collaboration and more results.
This was the fifteenth call between both leaders since they began their administration almost in parallel, Sheinbaum in October 2024 and Trump in January 2025. On average almost one call per month of administration, with similar results, so we could say that the calls between the two, so far, have had some effect: although it has not managed to dilute Trump’s threat of unilateral action in Mexican territory or the perception that the cartels control the country, the Sheinbaum government has even less has it managed to manage the crisis that this generates.
On the other hand, however, we can also assure that, despite the many calls, the problem is still there and that Donald Trump expects more collaboration and more results…
But what is more collaboration? based on what parameters and metrics? What does Trump want from Mexico? Maybe a knock on the table?
It is very clear that Claudia Sheinbaum’s administration took a radical turn to the security strategy that she inherited from her predecessor Andrés Manuel López Obrador, the so-called “hugs, not bullets” policy, based on betting on the origin of the criminal phenomenon with more economic support for young people who do not have development opportunities and are attracted to join the ranks of the cartels, instead of confronting these organizations with the security forces.
But “hugs not bullets” was a complete failure. Criminal organizations not only grew but expanded their illegal businesses: human trafficking, weapons, extortion and kidnappings, money laundering, of course in addition to what is related to drugs. This also generated a penetration of crime into political structures like never before seen, with greater control of territory, as Trump says.
Last Wednesday, January 14, President Sheinbaum spoke about the alleged “narcopolitics” within her movement during her morning press conference. He responded to a question from a journalist about a Washington Post article in which it was stated that, according to sources familiar with the bilateral relationship, the White House would be explicitly asking the Mexican government to act legally against Morena politicians linked to organized crime. That would be a knock on the table.
President Sheinbaum said that the issue has never been raised and that it is not part of the conversations between both countries. In short, it is not an issue. However, just mentioning it is an issue, because regardless of whether it is an explicit request from the Trump administration, a coup by the Mexican government would represent an important gesture to make it clear that there is a will to combat drug trafficking to the last consequences. And, above all, it would reaffirm that the country is under the control of its president.
More than that, I am sure that a decisive blow to narcopolitics would be welcomed by Mexicans, eager to see that the fight against organized crime has no untouchables.
However, such a coup could imply a lot of friction within the ruling party, where there are strong disputes for control of the Fourth Transformation. President Sheinbaum has control of the structures of the government, the budget, and the bureaucracy, but this does not mean that she has political control within the party and the movement, despite the fact that she has maintained high levels of approval throughout her first year in office. He continues to share that leadership with the founder of Morena, former president López Obrador.